Re: [問卦] 火力發電廠蓋你家好不好?消失
: → jesiuty: 噗 綠能不能當基載 還在綠能能取代核能的只有火 08/11 00:05
: → a1chemy: 講反了 能取代火的只有核能 火力一直都是主要發電方式 08/11 00:07
以現在全球電力業的趨勢,什麼基載,什麼備轉容量,都可說是舊觀念了。
電力業當然需要足夠發電量來應付尖峰需求,可是用電需求是幾個小時就差很多。
以台灣夏日為例,上午六時和正午十二時的用電需求,差距將近 10000MW。那是將
近總發電容量三分之一的差距!
為了應付尖峰需求,離峰就是要接受多達三分之一發電量的閒置。因此過去電力業
者只能選擇最便宜的發電方式,離峰時拿去電地球,比較不心疼。燃氣機組能迅速
普及,因為燃氣機組可以快速啟動快速關閉。即使燒氣比較貴,可是只需要在尖峰
時段燒,尖峰過了就可以關掉省錢。
尖離峰差距很大,而且每天都要循環一次,這就是催生電業自由化和智慧電網的沃
土。光是把尖離峰用電差拉平一點,電力業就可以省下很多燃料。智慧電表、分時
電價,都是為了拉平尖離峰的手段而已。民營電力為了賺錢,才會不停動腦。國營
電力只要會計上有盈餘就能交代了,不需要去想這些賺錢門路。
未來的電力業,可以說一定是追求備轉容量接近零。因為備轉容量,是要靠燃料費
推動發電機才生出來,根本就是無法回收的成本。利用大數據和智慧裝置,掌握即
時用電需求,並且從發電機或儲能裝置,調度電力。未來笨重的燃煤或核電,即使
還能維持低成本,也會退居供應離峰需求。尖離峰差距會交給能迅速啟動的機組,
或是儲能裝置供應。
所以台灣最需要發展的,就是用電愈兇,供電就愈強的太陽能。其次是儲電,最好
是能再興建幾座抽蓄電廠,可以調度電力又不浪費水。還有尖離峰差距,就用燃氣
機,補足缺口。
剩下的要選用風電、煤電,那就是比較供電成本和附加價值,選 CP 值高的。至於
核電,就給中國發展吧!
政府的電力政策,應該參考歐美日電業自由化的後果,擷取其長處。例如用智慧電
網調度供需,例如把綠電納入電網,這些都不需要自由化,就可以讓台電學。而最
重要的就是長期電力供應目標,政府要根據產業發展明確訂定。要不要發展電力相
關產業,政府也要明確決定。台電就是在政府指示下,把電力供應做好。
歐日因為鼓勵發展綠能,綠電供應大增。台灣則因核電爭議,浪費了四千億興建一
座不用的核電廠,讓電力供應趕不上社會經濟發展。未來會有一段時間要先拉高電
力供應量,一定是選火電,擁核就不用想了。等到電力供應拉高上去,綠電就會開
始增加。綠電供電曲線和用電需求曲線,會需要智慧電網和儲能裝置調節的。
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