Re: [分享]北約:俄羅斯軍隊在入侵後規模更大、更強
※ 引述《jason748 (第79空中突擊旅)》之銘言:
: 不知道先前的板友分享情報有無提到(機翻警告)
: https://reurl.cc/va1Oga
: euromaidanpress 4月12日報導
我三天前就發過了
#1c7E3XXp (Military)
甚至更早之前,美國國務副卿也有說過類似的話
#1c4qOiOe (Military)
原文吃光
其實Cavoli的意思主要就幾個
1.俄軍有進行動員來擴大人力
2.俄軍很多非地面戰力是沒有投入烏克蘭且被消耗/重創的(ex.核武)
3.俄國有獲得伊朗、中國和北韓的支援
而關於俄國除非被直接打垮,否則戰爭結束時都是區域炸彈的言論
我也早在一個月前就聽到Michael Kofman提過,當時也有發到板上
不過關於Cavoli的說法,我推薦閱讀這份分析:
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1775956294412705956
即,俄軍只是動員大量人力,但是在裝備方面很多類別都補充困難,
很多單位都只能以次充好,先求有不求好,
俄軍在無人機和電戰等方面固然有較大擴充,
裝甲車輛與高素質軍人卻會需要很多年才能重建
亦即,說俄軍越來越強是曲解
實際上說的是俄軍有在進行動員,人數變多了
美國政府和部分智庫(戰爭研究院)最近一堆類似說法
都在警告說俄軍對北約的威脅非常大云云
但是也受到許多評論指責說是誇大過甚
追根究柢這類言論都是在幫烏克蘭軍援預算案造勢......
戰爭研究院前天發的頗有爭議的報告,看到有許多專家對此頗有微詞:
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1780264953548570818
比較合理的分析,是應該去觀察俄國的經濟前景:
https://twitter.com/amenka/status/1778062789782696407
應該同意,俄國本次戰爭的經濟比預想的堅韌,
而且意外在財產分配等方面有一定緩解
但是戰爭無疑仍是造成了諸多問題,戰後也必然有很多遺緒
至於推文一堆____說啥怎麼和軍武板說的不同(?????),
我只能說,柵欄不是說假的,建議回去牆裡面
--
You ask, what is our policy? I will say: It is to wage war, by sea, land and
air, with all our might and with all the strength that God can give us; to
wage war against a monstrous tyranny, never surpassed in the dark and
lamentable catalogue of human crime. That is our policy.
~ Winston Churchill, Blood, Toil, Tears and Sweat, 5/13/1940
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 74.212.230.218 (美國)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Military/M.1713459351.A.205.html
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之前有買很多,但是給的是印度盧比,俄國很難用......
而且最近的消息都是說印度買的量變少很多
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應該說俄軍在戰爭最初期根本沒有按照建軍教範被運用,但其戰場假設是錯誤的
目前的俄軍在進行動員後,也有持續調整其作戰方式
※ 編輯: jimmy5680 (74.212.230.218 美國), 04/19/2024 01:15:48
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