Re: [新聞] 謝金河:在這買房 房價永遠只會下跌
房價這種東西很難說,會影響的因素太多了,比如政策,
景氣,資金流向,乃至國際房市都會有關聯.
台灣房價現階段是沒有太多大漲的條件,但若像香港那樣自由化
開放外資炒樓炒地,光是比價效應即可讓台灣房價再漲個50%以上,
為何這麼說? 香港人的所得約是台灣的1.5-1.8倍,
大學畢業生起薪40000多一點,一般上班族約70000,
主管級差不多10-12萬,但重點來了,整個香港平均房價約合台幣230萬一坪,
而且還是全港喔,若是在精華地區一坪平均350萬-400萬都有可能.
如果拿香港跟台北比,則整個香港相當於大台北(台北+新北)
問題是雙北平均房價約為55萬,香港的精華地區相當於台北市中心好了,
台北市中心我高估一點,用90萬好了,就算以香港的所得/2等於雙北地區所得
(一樣高估香港人所得)則北市中心平均房價應該賣到170萬/坪,
大台北應該平均賣到115萬/坪,假若建立在資金完全流動且與香港形成比價效應的話.
當然,政府不會腦殘就是,就算他們希望拉房救經濟,問題更不願賠上政權造成更多民怨,
不過,現階段全世界主要國家房價都在漲,台灣房價下檔空間也相對有限了,
反而還可能看到小漲.
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