Re: [請益] 技術分析無用論vs.有用論
: 推 zhenglack : 技術分析是輔助進 的工具,不能預測市場。 06/12 11:04
: → YOTO0282 : 所有進出場的依據,都是對市場進行預測。而預測..... 06/12 11:11
: → YOTO0282 : 全是主觀的意志 06/12 11:11
: → YOTO0282 : 當你選擇一個指標時,就有自我主觀意志在決定預測 06/12 11:13
也許這裡對「預測」這個詞有不一樣的理解?
舉個例子好了,假設我們在一個賭場(台股),裡面有1000個荷官(上市櫃股票)
經由觀察,我們發現某個荷官使用的骰子,機率並不均等
出六的機率,比出一到五的機率來得大,有顯著性
只要我們能確認這件事,我們就可以一直押六,機械式的一直押
(這就是系統了)
在下注的人當中,有些人可能覺得他是在預測「骰子出六」
也有些人認為他不是在預測骰子出六
因為這骰子並不是光出六,出別的數字的機率仍然存在
他只是利用「出六機率大」這個事實而己
不過不管如何,他們都是在做同一件事:押六
經由觀察,找到模式,由這個模式來賺錢,這就是技術分析
它不會去問為什麼,技術分析看的是事實
它不會管這骰子有什麼不同
另一方面,基本分析可能會研究這骰子本身,形狀、重心...等等有什麼不同
然後用所得到的結論,企圖找出下一個不公平的骰子
雖然大家都知道找到這種骰子之後要押六
但也不能押身家,因為出別的數字的機率仍然存在
不然一次沒出六就畢業了
要押多少,這部份是資金管理
實際操作時,可能會遇到六怎麼老是不出的情況
信心動搖的部份就靠心理面來解決
大guy4這樣
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 36.224.2.46
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1497242303.A.B8E.html
推
06/12 12:47, , 1F
06/12 12:47, 1F
推
06/12 12:50, , 2F
06/12 12:50, 2F
→
06/12 12:52, , 3F
06/12 12:52, 3F
→
06/12 12:52, , 4F
06/12 12:52, 4F
→
06/12 12:52, , 5F
06/12 12:52, 5F
→
06/12 12:53, , 6F
06/12 12:53, 6F
→
06/12 12:55, , 7F
06/12 12:55, 7F
→
06/12 12:55, , 8F
06/12 12:55, 8F
推
06/12 12:59, , 9F
06/12 12:59, 9F
→
06/12 13:00, , 10F
06/12 13:00, 10F
→
06/12 13:01, , 11F
06/12 13:01, 11F
推
06/12 13:01, , 12F
06/12 13:01, 12F
→
06/12 13:01, , 13F
06/12 13:01, 13F
→
06/12 13:02, , 14F
06/12 13:02, 14F
推
06/12 13:03, , 15F
06/12 13:03, 15F
→
06/12 13:07, , 16F
06/12 13:07, 16F
→
06/12 13:07, , 17F
06/12 13:07, 17F
→
06/12 13:07, , 18F
06/12 13:07, 18F
推
06/12 13:08, , 19F
06/12 13:08, 19F
→
06/12 13:09, , 20F
06/12 13:09, 20F
→
06/12 13:10, , 21F
06/12 13:10, 21F
推
06/12 13:11, , 22F
06/12 13:11, 22F
→
06/12 13:12, , 23F
06/12 13:12, 23F
→
06/12 13:15, , 24F
06/12 13:15, 24F
→
06/12 13:16, , 25F
06/12 13:16, 25F
推
06/12 13:16, , 26F
06/12 13:16, 26F
→
06/12 13:16, , 27F
06/12 13:16, 27F
→
06/12 13:16, , 28F
06/12 13:16, 28F
→
06/12 13:16, , 29F
06/12 13:16, 29F
→
06/12 13:17, , 30F
06/12 13:17, 30F
→
06/12 13:17, , 31F
06/12 13:17, 31F
→
06/12 13:18, , 32F
06/12 13:18, 32F
→
06/12 13:19, , 33F
06/12 13:19, 33F
→
06/12 13:21, , 34F
06/12 13:21, 34F
→
06/12 13:21, , 35F
06/12 13:21, 35F
→
06/12 13:22, , 36F
06/12 13:22, 36F
→
06/12 13:22, , 37F
06/12 13:22, 37F
→
06/12 13:23, , 38F
06/12 13:23, 38F
→
06/12 13:23, , 39F
06/12 13:23, 39F
還有 273 則推文
→
06/12 16:32, , 313F
06/12 16:32, 313F
→
06/12 16:33, , 314F
06/12 16:33, 314F
→
06/12 16:33, , 315F
06/12 16:33, 315F
→
06/12 16:33, , 316F
06/12 16:33, 316F
→
06/12 16:33, , 317F
06/12 16:33, 317F
→
06/12 16:34, , 318F
06/12 16:34, 318F
→
06/12 16:34, , 319F
06/12 16:34, 319F
→
06/12 16:34, , 320F
06/12 16:34, 320F
→
06/12 16:35, , 321F
06/12 16:35, 321F
→
06/12 16:35, , 322F
06/12 16:35, 322F
→
06/12 16:35, , 323F
06/12 16:35, 323F
→
06/12 16:35, , 324F
06/12 16:35, 324F
→
06/12 16:36, , 325F
06/12 16:36, 325F
→
06/12 16:36, , 326F
06/12 16:36, 326F
→
06/12 16:36, , 327F
06/12 16:36, 327F
→
06/12 16:37, , 328F
06/12 16:37, 328F
→
06/12 16:37, , 329F
06/12 16:37, 329F
→
06/12 16:37, , 330F
06/12 16:37, 330F
→
06/12 16:37, , 331F
06/12 16:37, 331F
→
06/12 16:37, , 332F
06/12 16:37, 332F
→
06/12 16:38, , 333F
06/12 16:38, 333F
→
06/12 16:39, , 334F
06/12 16:39, 334F
→
06/12 16:39, , 335F
06/12 16:39, 335F
→
06/12 16:39, , 336F
06/12 16:39, 336F
→
06/12 16:39, , 337F
06/12 16:39, 337F
→
06/12 16:39, , 338F
06/12 16:39, 338F
→
06/12 16:41, , 339F
06/12 16:41, 339F
→
06/12 16:41, , 340F
06/12 16:41, 340F
→
06/12 16:42, , 341F
06/12 16:42, 341F
→
06/12 16:42, , 342F
06/12 16:42, 342F
→
06/12 16:43, , 343F
06/12 16:43, 343F
→
06/12 16:43, , 344F
06/12 16:43, 344F
→
06/12 16:44, , 345F
06/12 16:44, 345F
→
06/12 16:45, , 346F
06/12 16:45, 346F
推
06/12 16:58, , 347F
06/12 16:58, 347F
→
06/12 16:58, , 348F
06/12 16:58, 348F
→
06/12 17:00, , 349F
06/12 17:00, 349F
→
06/12 17:57, , 350F
06/12 17:57, 350F
推
06/12 21:07, , 351F
06/12 21:07, 351F
推
06/13 12:22, , 352F
06/13 12:22, 352F
討論串 (同標題文章)