[請益] 技術分析無用論vs.有用論
這個問題被討論到爛掉了
但是小弟希望大家一起理性討論,畢竟這是一個學術版XD
小弟目前還在研究量化投資,以及還在建置自己的交易系統
沒有錢也沒有賺到錢,所以請各位前輩多多指教
技術分析的相關論點有幾個
1.財報跟新聞可以被捏造,但是價跟量「相對」比較公正
而且未公佈的基本面、投資者的情緒、政策,都會反映在價量上
2.技術分析最重要的三點:心理、系統、資金,三者缺一不可,相互關聯
心理:該砍就砍,對自己的股票不要有任何感情,心情不能隨著價格起伏而躁動
系統:雖然某個系統過去賺錢不一定未來會賺錢,但總比沒有回測好太多吧?
對於自己的系統要完全遵從,嚴格執行停損(停利可能照著5MA下彎之類的準則)
資金:錢要夠多,部位要管理好,不然就馬上被洗下去又賠光,結果最後漲上來了
而且資金配置與部位規模會影響最終能不能獲利
我好奇的是說技術分析沒有用的人這三點是否有沒有都做到,但我更好奇的是
如果有人這三點都做到了,但還是不賺錢,那究竟是哪裡出問題?
還有一個疑問是,該知道自己的交易系統(或參數之類的)何時該變動呢?
如果太常變動,等於沒有交易系統,但是不變動也不可能
因為市場總是特性會改變
btw,「走進我的交易室」真的提供了滿多許多寶貴的觀念
(雖然對板上股神來說如小兒科)
最近在拜讀「交易,創造自己的聖杯」希望可以得到更多想法
請大家鞭小力一點,歡迎大家一起討論
歡迎大家理性討論
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