Re: [閒聊] 悲情投手
※ 引述《nickyang (肌腱炎者少打字)》之銘言:
: 不好意思剛剛可能沒有講得很清楚,
: 我的問題是,面對一個外行人-只懂得基本棒球規則的人
: 直接講FIP、WAR有比講ERA、W難嗎?
: 我覺得好像很多人會先入為主的認為ERA、W很好懂,那是因為你們不是外行人
: 你已經懂得ERA是什麼了,其實ERA根本超難解釋的吧?
: 光是怎樣算ER怎樣不算ER就飽了,即使在專門討論棒球的論壇,聚集著對棒球有基本
: 認識的人的地方,也還是三不五時會有人問各種ER算法
: 勝投也是啊
: 幾局下場算勝投,如果六下丟完下場七上上逆轉算不算?
: 如果被代打之後逆轉算不算?如果沒丟滿五局之後算誰的?
: 真的跟一個完全沒有一點點ERA、W觀念的人解釋這些其實超困難的吧?
: 相較起來所有DIPS不是直觀易懂得多嗎?
: 很多人對DIPS的質疑其實除去被ERA先入為主的影響
: 根本不會產生這些問題吧?
我們看棒球的原點是什麼?
因為贏韓國,因為 niceplay,因為逆轉比賽的全壘打
或是因為在美國闖下一片天的王建民
更多是因為棒球給我們的感動
大多數的人(尤其是新手)真的都是帶著感性在看球的
他們可以理解勝投,因為想看投手可以幫球隊贏幾場球
至於六下丟完下場七上逆轉算不算勝投,被代打之後逆轉算不算勝投
很多人應該都覺得不重要吧
只有真的碰到這種情況才會問一下然後說 "喔,原來這樣也(不)算"
這也是為什麼很難把進階數據推廣給新手(或是一般人)
FIP=(13*HR + 3*BB - 2*SO)/IP+3.2 夠簡單吧?是的,真的不難
但是算 FIP 可以感受到投手三振對手以後的歡呼嗎?恐怕是不行的
那些加權倍率對很多人來說真的只是冰冷的數字而已
進階數據對於評估球員是真的有幫助得
但是他們真的不太直觀啊....
再補個例子好了,一個整季只有91個打席,WAR = -0.9的人重不重要
這個選手是2011年的 Dan Johnson。
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◆ From: 140.112.175.111
※ 編輯: DogNose24 來自: 140.112.175.111 (06/14 12:39)
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