Re: 再提一下子午谷事
※ 引述《godivan (白河家的螢天下無雙)》之銘言:
: 先聲名 老子不是支持子午谷
: 只是針對這段話做一些感想而已 不爽的就當作我沒在講話吧(飄走)
: ※ 引述《tenweli (tenweli)》之銘言:
: : 隆美爾對戰略上的冒險和賭搏下個一個十分合理的註解:
: : 冒險就是很經過計算的大膽作為,一旦當計劃失敗都有退路可行,賭搏則是不顧一切,不
: : 是大勝就是徹底的失敗,輸了就全盤落空。
: : (和原文略有出入,憑記憶表達)
: : 同時一個好的戰略家應該冒險,但除非到幾乎注定失敗的關頭,不該賭搏。
: 以個人認為,這兩個可以說是後代人以結果論來看待的
: 講白一點就是 贏了 就可以說是經過計算的大膽作為;輸了就是不顧一切的賭博
: EX: 鄧艾走陰平小道
: 這幾天看來,幾乎都看到一致性的把鄧艾捧上天 甚至還有"全蜀國的情資都拿到手"
: (我當然知道有些人仍然不把他當作好的範本)
: 結果我們反過來看魏延
: 評價是什麼呢?我想不必多說,只要翻翻版面就知道
: 我是不知道是因為什麼的影響啦 總而言之在一般人的觀感好像魏延不過是個.......
: ----
: 不覺得這段話跟孫大砲講革命跟叛亂的差別很像嗎XDD
你站的角度不對,看事情的結論就會不對。
今天魏延和鄧艾其實都是在賭搏,兩者都有一失敗就全軍掛點的可能性。
只是對蜀國而言,這整個戰略也是賭搏,五千精銳加上五千輸卒還有糧草器械,加上魏
延這樣重要的軍事核心將領和一堆中下階軍官,若就這樣沒有 ,蜀國會很長時間失去
戰略的主動權,甚至一旦老魏降魏,那蜀國很可能不用完了。
對魏國而言,鄧艾個人的賭搏在戰略來看不過是種冒險罷了,鄧艾這批人都死光了,鐘會
還是可以用壓的把姜維壓住,就算沒有鄧艾,整個正面對魏國還是絕對有利。
鄧艾只是運氣好賭贏了,蜀國提早掛點,不過鄧艾掛點了,蜀也不過是晚點掛點。
而魏延運氣好賭贏了,魏國也不會掛點,只是魏延掛點了,蜀國提早掛點的可能性很大。
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
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