Re: [閒聊] 悲情投手
再發一篇來說一下我對 ERA 和別的進階投手數據的想法…
ERA 基本上是一個比較直觀的數據,因為它符合比賽進行的正常 flow
新手看比賽,最常看到的正常場景是什麼?
投手投球->打者打出->跑者推進->掉分
所以失多少分的源頭主要是投手
等一下,那野手也會失誤啊?
那我們來定一些規則界定怎樣是投手的責任、怎樣不是
怎樣算上一個投手的錯,怎樣算接任投手的錯
規則既複雜又奇怪,不過至少是有所依據
如果一年只看個三五場球的人,理解大概就到這邊,對他們來說也夠了
如果要解釋 FIP 的時候非得從投手不能完全控制 BABIP 來開始
但是這個是連看球十多年的人都很難越過的心理障礙
我覺得要求新球迷去理解或接受這種觀念可能大多數人都做不到
更別提像 WAR WS 這種背後有很多公式計算,還要去考量各種 normalize 的東西
做分析的時候拿來用可以,電視轉播的時候球評可能花半局都解釋不完,還會講錯
因為不能快速且符合比賽流程地解釋,所以難以成為主流…
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