Re: [新聞] 台電總工程師李鴻洲:核電成本每度0.消失
※ 引述《lapetos (latt)》之銘言:
: 成本是0.66沒錯
: 我在MIT做的全球核能研究報告是查到這樣沒錯
: 底下有個Fuel costs的項目有寫
: 核能(nuclear)是0.47
: 燃煤(coal)是1.20
: 燃氣(ngcc)是3.5
: http://i.imgur.com/V280jQF.jpg
這邊的單位是mmBTU,Million British thermal units。
根本不是度,金額也不是新台幣是US dollar,你到底在比什麼?
: 不過這個是指燃料的部份而已
: 如果算進蓋廠成本跟核廢料處理成本
: 還有除役後要維護的成本
: 真正的發電成本就不只這些囉
: 底下這張才是真正的數據
: http://i.imgur.com/z2DVuiQ.jpg
你所謂的真正數據 Table 5.1
根據超專業文第38-39頁:
We start with a “base case” that examines the levelized real life-cycle
costs of nuclear, coal, and CCGT generating technology using assumptions
that we believe commercial investors would be expected to use today to
evaluate the costs of the alternative generation options.
The levelized cost is the constant real wholesale price of electricity
that meets a private investor’s financing cost, debt repayment,
income tax, and associated cash flow constraints.
(The assumptions underlying the base case are listed in Table 5.3
and illustrative cash flows produced by our financial model are provided
in Appendix 5.)
根本就是根據假設模型推導出來,並非實績值。
: 可以看到真正的發電成本是核電>燃氣>燃煤
: 這個是沒人知道的事情
: 想研究數據的可以看這篇超專業文
: https://goo.gl/cTrZd3
根據超專業文第41頁:
In countries that rely on state owned enterprises that are willing and able to
shift cost risks to consumers to reduce the cost of capital, or to subsidize
financing costs directly, and which face high gas and coal costs, it is
possible that nuclear power could be perceived to be an economical choice.
對於天然氣、燃煤成本高昂的國家,核電可能會是經濟選項。
事實是:
1. 台電核電發電成本每度電是有計算0.17元的後端處理費用的。
這數字高估低估可以提出來討論,但並沒台電沒有計算後端處理成本。
2. 近年核電發電成本台電的確幾乎不需要計算入建廠成本
——因為建廠成本大部分早就已折舊攤提完畢,是還要攤提什麼啦!
核能電廠主要設備折舊年限為15年,核一、核二及核三廠完工時的
主要設備固定資產投資分別於民國83、86及90年度提滿折舊,
目前折舊費用主要為期中更新設備與建築的費用。
--
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Gossiping/M.1502564922.A.338.html
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原po覺得自己在浪費人生...
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※ 編輯: davidkid (36.227.11.63), 08/13/2017 03:14:31
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這邊的一個狀況是,很多人討論發電成本時,分不清楚討論的是
本年度發電成本,還是生命週期成本。
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※ 編輯: davidkid (36.227.11.63), 08/13/2017 03:27:45
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問題就是,lapetos拿這篇宣稱「真正的發電成本是核電>燃氣>燃煤」
但這篇壓根並不是實際結果的統計,
而是根據美國燃料成本及美國電廠興建現狀所做的評估預測
這篇報告可以適用台灣嗎?
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※ 編輯: davidkid (36.227.11.63), 08/13/2017 03:43:14
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