Re: [請益] 房價真的有人看漲嗎?
我的看法不太一樣,講具現實點的,房價漲跟民眾買不買得起關係不大,
而是大戶(如壽險買家,外資,本土資金)與操縱者(建商,政府,財團等)
決定了房地產的價格.
舉個例子,香港房價早就已經嚴重偏高,房價所得比最低的時候也在20倍以上,
可是房價還能持續飆升,原因出在哪? 內資與外資的聯合炒作與操控,
加上完全自由經濟造就了這樣的結果,香港有一部分的地與建物是外資持有的,
假若只以居住為需求房價不可能如此,台北房價在1986年的所得比才4倍,
1989年變成13倍,2003年低檔時也只回到7倍,現在則在15倍左右,
15倍當然是歷史高檔,可是你能期待房地產跌多少? 除非是國際房市大跌
(通常是全球經濟衰退長時間嚴重不景氣)再不就是重大天災人禍(誰都不希望發生)
否則頂多就是小跌或持平,反倒是資金再度流入房市,房價就有可能再起
(大漲不至於但是小漲有可能,別忘了比價效應)
現在的重點在於全球主要國家的房價都是明顯上漲,香港也逼近歷史新高,
台灣的房市現在已經愈來愈與國際連動,尤其這幾年跟香港的連動特別密切,
國際房市不大跌,台灣房價也難見太多低點吧.
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