[情報] 91W TCFA
看板TY_Research作者keroromoa (夏天一到就凸顯自己很魯)時間6年前 (2017/10/14 12:00)推噓92(92推 0噓 80→)留言172則, 31人參與討論串8/12 (看更多)
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9117web.txt
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9117.gif
WTPN21 PGTW 140230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.7N 140.0E TO 11.0N 134.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.7N 139.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 142.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTER. A 132112Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AS WELL AS CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KNOTS) AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS).
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INTENSIFY TO WARNING
CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150230Z.//
NNNN
感覺稍微有點給快了,老J自己也在報文表示現況不確定是否達到預警標準。
不過隨著LLCC逐漸有對流覆蓋且出現旋捲性,加上未來環境優良還是發了。
數值預測今年最有成為大物潛力的系統,
如果明顯發展確實如老J所說比數值提前快2天,未來可能預報變動不小。
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 101.139.69.1
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1507953641.A.925.html
推
10/14 12:03,
6年前
, 1F
10/14 12:03, 1F
→
10/14 12:03,
6年前
, 2F
10/14 12:03, 2F
推
10/14 12:04,
6年前
, 3F
10/14 12:04, 3F
推
10/14 12:07,
6年前
, 4F
10/14 12:07, 4F
→
10/14 12:11,
6年前
, 5F
10/14 12:11, 5F
推
10/14 12:15,
6年前
, 6F
10/14 12:15, 6F
推
10/14 12:15,
6年前
, 7F
10/14 12:15, 7F
推
10/14 12:40,
6年前
, 8F
10/14 12:40, 8F
推
10/14 12:51,
6年前
, 9F
10/14 12:51, 9F
→
10/14 12:51,
6年前
, 10F
10/14 12:51, 10F
推
10/14 12:58,
6年前
, 11F
10/14 12:58, 11F
→
10/14 12:58,
6年前
, 12F
10/14 12:58, 12F
→
10/14 12:59,
6年前
, 13F
10/14 12:59, 13F
推
10/14 13:05,
6年前
, 14F
10/14 13:05, 14F
推
10/14 13:06,
6年前
, 15F
10/14 13:06, 15F
推
10/14 13:08,
6年前
, 16F
10/14 13:08, 16F
→
10/14 13:08,
6年前
, 17F
10/14 13:08, 17F
推
10/14 13:08,
6年前
, 18F
10/14 13:08, 18F
→
10/14 13:08,
6年前
, 19F
10/14 13:08, 19F
推
10/14 13:15,
6年前
, 20F
10/14 13:15, 20F
推
10/14 13:31,
6年前
, 21F
10/14 13:31, 21F
推
10/14 13:32,
6年前
, 22F
10/14 13:32, 22F
推
10/14 13:33,
6年前
, 23F
10/14 13:33, 23F
→
10/14 13:34,
6年前
, 24F
10/14 13:34, 24F
推
10/14 13:36,
6年前
, 25F
10/14 13:36, 25F
推
10/14 13:38,
6年前
, 26F
10/14 13:38, 26F
推
10/14 13:39,
6年前
, 27F
10/14 13:39, 27F
→
10/14 13:40,
6年前
, 28F
10/14 13:40, 28F
推
10/14 13:40,
6年前
, 29F
10/14 13:40, 29F
→
10/14 13:41,
6年前
, 30F
10/14 13:41, 30F
推
10/14 13:44,
6年前
, 31F
10/14 13:44, 31F
推
10/14 13:47,
6年前
, 32F
10/14 13:47, 32F
推
10/14 13:47,
6年前
, 33F
10/14 13:47, 33F
→
10/14 13:48,
6年前
, 34F
10/14 13:48, 34F
→
10/14 13:48,
6年前
, 35F
10/14 13:48, 35F
→
10/14 13:48,
6年前
, 36F
10/14 13:48, 36F
推
10/14 13:49,
6年前
, 37F
10/14 13:49, 37F
推
10/14 13:49,
6年前
, 38F
10/14 13:49, 38F
推
10/14 13:51,
6年前
, 39F
10/14 13:51, 39F
還有 93 則推文
→
10/15 08:43,
6年前
, 133F
10/15 08:43, 133F
推
10/15 08:55,
6年前
, 134F
10/15 08:55, 134F
推
10/15 09:13,
6年前
, 135F
10/15 09:13, 135F
推
10/15 09:48,
6年前
, 136F
10/15 09:48, 136F
推
10/15 09:59,
6年前
, 137F
10/15 09:59, 137F
推
10/15 09:59,
6年前
, 138F
10/15 09:59, 138F
推
10/15 10:03,
6年前
, 139F
10/15 10:03, 139F
推
10/15 10:05,
6年前
, 140F
10/15 10:05, 140F
推
10/15 10:11,
6年前
, 141F
10/15 10:11, 141F
→
10/15 10:11,
6年前
, 142F
10/15 10:11, 142F
推
10/15 10:14,
6年前
, 143F
10/15 10:14, 143F
→
10/15 10:16,
6年前
, 144F
10/15 10:16, 144F
→
10/15 10:19,
6年前
, 145F
10/15 10:19, 145F
推
10/15 10:29,
6年前
, 146F
10/15 10:29, 146F
推
10/15 10:31,
6年前
, 147F
10/15 10:31, 147F
推
10/15 10:32,
6年前
, 148F
10/15 10:32, 148F
→
10/15 11:19,
6年前
, 149F
10/15 11:19, 149F
→
10/15 11:20,
6年前
, 150F
10/15 11:20, 150F
推
10/15 11:30,
6年前
, 151F
10/15 11:30, 151F
→
10/15 11:30,
6年前
, 152F
10/15 11:30, 152F
推
10/15 12:19,
6年前
, 153F
10/15 12:19, 153F
→
10/15 12:19,
6年前
, 154F
10/15 12:19, 154F
推
10/15 13:57,
6年前
, 155F
10/15 13:57, 155F
推
10/15 14:09,
6年前
, 156F
10/15 14:09, 156F
推
10/15 14:36,
6年前
, 157F
10/15 14:36, 157F
推
10/15 14:48,
6年前
, 158F
10/15 14:48, 158F
推
10/15 15:28,
6年前
, 159F
10/15 15:28, 159F
→
10/15 15:29,
6年前
, 160F
10/15 15:29, 160F
推
10/15 15:35,
6年前
, 161F
10/15 15:35, 161F
→
10/15 15:56,
6年前
, 162F
10/15 15:56, 162F
→
10/15 15:57,
6年前
, 163F
10/15 15:57, 163F
→
10/15 15:58,
6年前
, 164F
10/15 15:58, 164F
推
10/15 16:09,
6年前
, 165F
10/15 16:09, 165F
→
10/15 16:10,
6年前
, 166F
10/15 16:10, 166F
推
10/15 16:12,
6年前
, 167F
10/15 16:12, 167F
推
10/15 16:14,
6年前
, 168F
10/15 16:14, 168F
推
10/15 16:18,
6年前
, 169F
10/15 16:18, 169F
推
10/15 16:49,
6年前
, 170F
10/15 16:49, 170F
推
10/15 17:55,
6年前
, 171F
10/15 17:55, 171F
推
10/15 18:35,
6年前
, 172F
10/15 18:35, 172F
討論串 (同標題文章)