[情報] 91W TCFA

看板TY_Research作者tytony (混沌的大氣)時間10年前 (2014/01/16 22:44)推噓3(3推 0噓 3→)

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圖 http://ppt.cc/YhKy WTPN21 PGTW 161500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1N 128.2E TO 7.9N 125.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 011200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 127.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 128.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 127.7E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST- NORTHTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) DEPICTS A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 160933Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED DESPITE THE SYSTEM REMAINING OVERALL BROAD AND THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH REMAINS FRAGMENTED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY RELAXED TO MODERATE LEVELS (15 TO 25 KNOTS) WHILE HIGHLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW HAS PERSISTED. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS WEAKLY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS TOWARDS MINDANAO. DUE TO THE RECENT CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 171500Z.// NNNN -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 111.251.254.54

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keroromoa

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keroromoa

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keroromoa

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