[情報] 91W TCFA

看板TY_Research作者keroromoa (發言要小心避免踩到陳雷)時間7年前 (2016/07/17 13:14)推噓11(11推 0噓 11→)

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文： WTPN21 PGTW 170400 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.1N 130.3E TO 23.5N 127.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 130.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 131.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF A CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 170030Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE CIRCULATION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL, WITH GOOD WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. GIVEN INCREASING ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, IT IS LIKELY THE DISTURBANCE WILL REACH THE MINIMUM WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS AND REMAIN A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ULTIMATELY RESULTS IN DISSIPATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON THE CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR FORMATION FOR A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 180400Z.// NNNN 老J認為未來1~2天還有發展空間，但也就這1~2天能夠發展到勉強符合TD下限程度。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 101.138.76.209 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1468732474.A.A92.html

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WuCH1022

07/17 13:18, , 1^F

07/17 13:18, 1^F

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aegis43210

07/17 13:26, , 2^F

07/17 13:26, 2^F

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DoraBoy

07/17 14:21, , 3^F

07/17 14:21, 3^F