[情報] 91W TCFA

看板TY_Research作者tytony (混沌的大氣)時間11年前 (2012/07/15 13:07)推噓1(1推 0噓 2→)

留言3則, 2人參與討論串3/12 (看更多)

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9112web.txt WTPN21 PGTW 150430 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.7N 142.4E TO 24.4N 136.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 150000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 142.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 144.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 142.2E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A 150042Z ASCAT PASS. THIS SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH STRONGER 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER INDUCED BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DISTURBANCE AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL PREVIOUSLY SUPERIMPOSED OVER THE LLCC HAS MOVED RAPIDLY WESTWARD, DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND ALLOWING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY, A NEW TUTT CELL THAT HAS FORMED TO THE EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE HAS INTRODUCED A SECOND OUTFLOW CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS, WITH STRONGER GRADIENT-INDUCED WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS OBSERVED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON A PERSISTENT LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION AND RAPIDLY IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 160430Z.// -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.113.3.42

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imrbo

07/15 13:29, , 1^F

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logdog

07/15 13:55, , 2^F

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logdog

07/16 08:11, , 3^F

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