Re: [請益] 追高殺低長期能賺錢嗎?

看板Stock作者stasis (流雨風雪)時間6年前 (2018/01/01 22:18)推噓8(8推 0噓 8→)

留言16則, 7人參與討論串4/6 (看更多)

https://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/sp2004AIMRefficientMrkts.html 直接看BOGLE說了啥好了 But the EMH may well prove less important in investment theory than a new wisdom that is beginning to emerge. I call it the CMH: The Cost Matters Hypothesis. Like the EMH before it, the CMH posits a conclusion that is both trivially obvious and remarkably sweeping: The mathematical expectation of the speculator is a loss equal to the amount of transaction costs incurred. When he concluded otherwise, that “the mathematical expectation of the speculator is zero,” Bachelier was wrong. So, too, the mathematical expectation of the long-term investor is a shortfall to the stock market’s return, a shortfall that is precisely equal to the costs of our system of financial intermediation—the sum total of all those advisory fees, marketing expenditures, sales loads, brokerage commissions, transaction costs, custody and legal fees, and securities processing expenses. Intermediation costs in the U.S. equity market may well total as much as $300 billion a year, nearly 3% of the value of that $12 trillion market. http://time.com/money/3956351/jack-bogle-index-fund/ Q: What about the benefits of diversification or the idea that going abroad can lower overall risk because markets aren’t correlated? A: Diversification is certainly true, but noncorrelation is bunk. It’s applying higher mathematics to something I don’t think requires it. We’ve overanalyzed the whole thing. I’m always the apostle of simplicity and lower costs. 不管市場有沒有效率，投資人「整體」得到的報酬就是市場報酬，成本最低的投資人會打敗大部份的投資人，市值加權先天周轉率比其他方式低，就這樣。 -- FB: http://0rz.tw/l3Kcq █◣ ▊ ◥\◣◣\◣▼▼◣◣█◣ ▌ ╬╬ █銀ˊ どんだけ── ◥█◣ )) ▲▲██▲╴▲██▲ ▲ ▌ "囧█ ╬╬ █ˊ魂好文要推── ◥█◣ ◢ ▏ ▼██▼ ▼██▼▏███▌m@▼▄ ╬╬ EVERYBODY SAY ◥█◣█ ▼█▇▇█‥ ▇▇█▏◣ ▌ ▲◇" ╬╬ 市場求生手冊─ (( ╲ ╲ ◣▼ ▇▇▇ ▼ ◣ ▌▆▆▆ ╬╬ http://stasistw.blogspot.com/╲█╲█ ◥██████ ◤████▆▅▄▃▂▁ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 150.116.118.6 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1514816282.A.CDC.html ※ 編輯: stasis (150.116.118.6), 01/01/2018 22:24:12

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neddyuang

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