Re: [心得] 為什麼Duncan的火鍋比Howard來的有價值
※ 引述《spurs2120 (Fundamental)》之銘言:
: 標題: Re: [心得] 為什麼Duncan的火鍋比Howard來的有價值
: 時間: Thu Nov 24 23:30:38 2011
:
: → bahamutuh:但把DH的火鍋價值評分為最後一名 這計算一定有問題 11/24 22:33
: 推 bahamutuh:當一個結論出現很大爭議時 那代表他的計算方式要改變 11/24 23:05
: → bahamutuh:DH的火鍋價值評為最後一名 這應該沒啥人會贊同 11/24 23:06
: 推 bahamutuh:DH的火鍋價值只有總數? 你只看這個嗎 那我蠻失望的 11/24 23:10
: 推 bahamutuh:TD的防守能力是可以當一個球隊的基石 11/24 23:16
: → bahamutuh:DH的補防範圍和能力 卻是TD比不上的 11/24 23:17
http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/11/04/dwight-howard-will-continue-blocking-shots-out-of-bounds-thank-you-very-much/
我們看一下到底DH的分數為什麼會這麼低,
以及他自己是怎麼面對這個問題好了。這比鬼打牆來得有建設性一點。
Because of Howard’s tendency to swat shots out of bounds rather than tip
them to his teammates and his high rate of goaltends, Huizinga found that
Howard, on a block-by-block basis, had the least valuable blocks in the
entire NBA.
Howard’s goaltending was a much bigger issue than his tendency to swat shots
out of bounds in the study, and I don’t think anyone would argue that
goaltending is bad, including Howard. However,... “They told me to grab
them, but sometimes blocking a shot and sending it out of bounds shows a team
it’s not going to be easy to come in the paint,” Howard said. “Grabbing
it, that’s like being a showoff or something like that, even though it is
kind of cool.”So not only is Howard trying to block shots, he’s trying to
make defenders shy away from him later in the game. He wants to send a message.
“Every block,” he says.
Howard might have a point, because Magic opponents have been absolutelyx
terrified to take the ball to the rim this season. According to HoopData.com,
the Magic only allow 15 shot attempts at the rim per game, which is the
lowest mark in the NBA by a significant margin...
好了,在這一點上,DH有可能是對的。
但不讓對手在內線得手跟團隊打法有沒有關係呢?顯然不可能沒有。
跟某人不斷提及的補防範圍,例如蓋三分跳投有沒有關係呢?答案顯然是沒有。
最後還是回到對對手的心理威脅,也就是霸氣上。
到最後這篇新聞還是承認:
It’s impossible to give intimidation an exact statistical value.
霸氣是無法測量的,即使有時候我們找不到別的解釋。
統計不是萬能,但如果不能看到統計的優點而只能用一些似是而非的理由胡扯,
那真的沒有什麼討論的價值。
--
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◆ From: 99.125.165.60
※ 編輯: Alfred 來自: 99.125.165.60 (11/25 00:47)
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最後補充總板animos大寫信給Sandy Weil所得回覆作結:
#1EqZ9QUs (NBA)
" The 2.07 you reference is what we estimated as the points given up by
goaltending a non-jumper. (The value for a 2-pt jumper is actually 2.08,
and your 60-ft jumper case would be 3.00 points.) But then we subtract
from that a points saved value: the expected value for the shot that
was blocked. We refer to it as the expected value of the
counter-factual--what did not happen. We provide those expected values
one slide earlier in our presentation. See table below.
Basically, the cost of goaltending a non-jumper that occurs in a chance
that began with a live-ball turnover is -2.07 (points you cost your team)
minus 1.70 (the points you saved your team) equals - 0.37. That is the
value of that particular goaltending--you cost your team about 0.37 points
versus not challenging the shot / attempting to block it."
換言之,DH的分數是在已經採取對goal-tending價值認定較寬的算法下所得,
這份統計並非像某位仁兄所說的不足採信。
※ 編輯: Alfred 來自: 99.125.165.60 (11/27 22:28)
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