Re: [心得] 為什麼Duncan的火鍋比Howard來的有價值
這應該是最後一篇 可以蓋棺定案了
我直接寫信去問原作者 (本文中的數據分析師 Sandy Weil)
詢問GT價值的算法, 到底是板上很多人愛講的 -2 還是另有公式
看看他怎麼說的吧
" The 2.07 you reference is what we estimated as the points given up by
goaltending a non-jumper. (The value for a 2-pt jumper is actually 2.08,
and your 60-ft jumper case would be 3.00 points.) But then we subtract
from that a points saved value: the expected value for the shot that
was blocked. We refer to it as the expected value of the
counter-factual--what did not happen. We provide those expected values
one slide earlier in our presentation. See table below.
Basically, the cost of goaltending a non-jumper that occurs in a chance
that began with a live-ball turnover is -2.07 (points you cost your team)
minus 1.70 (the points you saved your team) equals - 0.37. That is the
value of that particular goaltending--you cost your team about 0.37 points
versus not challenging the shot / attempting to block it."
結論: 一個對 non-jumper GT 的代價
= 付出的失分 - 敵出手期望值 = -2.07 - (-1.70) = -0.37
所以的確不是 -2 而已
--
真好 不用重修數學了
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
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推 Broli :訝異居然達1.7 快接近dunk的期望值了
1.7 是對非跳投 對三分是 1.29 對兩分是 1.07
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