Re: 再提一下子午谷事
隆美爾對戰略上的冒險和賭搏下個一個十分合理的註解:
冒險就是很經過計算的大膽作為,一旦當計劃失敗都有退路可行,賭搏則是不顧一切,不
是大勝就是徹底的失敗,輸了就全盤落空。
(和原文略有出入,憑記憶表達)
同時一個好的戰略家應該冒險,但除非到幾乎注定失敗的關頭,不該賭搏。
今天我們根本不該以魏延的角度來看子午谷,該以諸葛亮的高度來看這個問題。
他只要問魏延一句,長安若無法攻下,那該如何?
這答案就無解了。因為以魏延的糧草和兵力不可能執行一場攻城戰失敗後還可能安然退回
子午谷。
同時諸葛亮只要看看手上的籌碼,五千兵銳,五千輸卒,一萬人十多天的糧草,和他手上
擁有的資源比重起來實在太高了。
記住,下者攻城,今天魏軍和你打野戰魏延還有機會速戰,但只要那個膽小鬼把城門一關
,那魏老大就得攻城,那守軍除非有內應,魏延還找到那某條下水道,加上守軍都在睡大
覺,那面對高大的城樓,魏延這五千精銳連攻城器具都不帶(帶了就不是那個速度了),
要蟻付而上,打到自己都光了都不一定打的下來....
若是魏延第一句話是,我軍剛彈準備完成,那諸亮可能會同意魏延開剛彈去踏平長安。
至於鄧艾,他的戰略也是賭搏,只要蜀軍堅守,他可能就餓死自己。
只是在魏軍的資源比重中,這根本不算太大的成本,鄧艾死了對魏國根本沒有動搖的可能
,只是蜀國的魏延等一票老將加上一萬士卒,那可是諸葛亮的本啊....
更何況若是戰死就算了,魏延不小心降敵了....不就好笑了!
拜託,討論戰略帶點戰略的眼光,用點戰略的分析。
拿XX比OO就是很精準,有時差很遠...
今天魏國是擁資數億的大公司,派一個人說,給你兩百萬,你去烏干達開水餃店。
蜀國不過資本數五百萬,有個經理自己來說,給我兩百萬,我去肯亞賣米粉。
你當然可以說,肯亞賣米粉可能會賺哦,只是賠了就賠了整個公司了...
--
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