財經觀點/國車國造? 輕軌前瞻的沉沒成本
行政院提出前瞻計畫引發在野黨強力杯葛,蔡英文總統下令要在本會期儘速通過,但如果
沒有完整的配套與產業發展策略,大錢投下去,我們的軌道工業、綠能產業在國際上就有
競爭力嗎?
以前瞻計畫裡的軌道建設來說,政府規畫在多個縣市廣建捷運、輕軌,希望藉此發展軌道
工業,但我們現在連列車設計圖、關鍵技術都沒有,要怎麼發展?高雄的輕軌捷運是西班
牙的列車,淡海輕軌的列車製造商中鋼也是買人家的設計圖來打造的,這樣能談「國車國
造」嗎?
台灣市場小,發展軌道工業不向外拓展市場,如何養活自己?光靠幾條捷運,根本不具市
場規模。現在國際上很多產業都是講分工,我們應該要知道我們可以站在哪個位置上,務
實去發展,才能在國際上與人競爭。
捷運建設是大投資的基礎建設,而且是一種「沉沒成本」(sink cost),投資下去不易
回收,拓展路網有侷限性,場站也不能作為他用,生很辛苦、養更難,興建完成後的軌道
設備、場站維護和人事成本,同樣要花大錢,沒有足夠運量絕對無法養活,政府要給民眾
行的便利、甚至稱之為做功德,可以依城市規模選擇最適當的交通運輸工具,不必然人家
有捷運我也一定要有。
政府官員一再說將來有場站開發可以引進居住人口、帶動發展,就可增加票箱收入、有場
站開發利益可以挹注捷運營運,但是看看高鐵,通車十年多了,站區外面還是空蕩蕩一片
,要發展站區(新市鎮),背後得有明確的供給目標,也就是有產業引進才有人口居住,
才有商業發展,才能增加收益,否則交通更便利了,人只會往外跑。
(本文由中華民國運輸協會理事長羅孝賢口述)
https://udn.com/news/story/7238/2471584
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