Re: [情報] 高雄捷運環狀輕軌106年1月~106年4月運量消失
目前紅橘通車第9年,運量從11萬(紅9萬橘2萬)到去年17萬約成長6萬多,黃線通車至少
再10年 ,我們用最低成長10年約增7萬,到民國116年單靠紅橘線小幅成長到24萬,這是
完全不把環狀輕軌及台鐵地下化轉乘效益算入
而另外目前環狀輕軌8站運量5000人今年第一階段全線通車我估只會有8-9千人的日均,全
線37站全通大概最慘初期會是4-5萬運量,這估量當然也沒把捷運及台鐵轉乘效益納入考
量。
岡山路竹線8站我只估1.5-2萬人次(進出除2以後)
以上紅橘環狀在民國116年黃線尚未通車情況下靠每年成長約6700人次加上路竹線貢獻的2
萬最低標可至30-32萬,當然這是各線拆開計算不包含轉乘效益。
而黃線通車後初期最保守運量我只給9-10萬,所以若黃線在116年順利通車 高捷全線約39
-41萬間
以上是在完全沒把轉乘效益加入單憑目前成長幅度推估,當然實際超過40萬是絕對沒問題
,未來10年輕軌推廣是否成功及台鐵地下化新增數站效益也會是黃線通車後影響整體運量
的關鍵。
以上純屬個人最低標預估運量。
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※ 編輯: et11117 (39.12.72.72), 05/17/2017 06:23:31
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