Re: [請益] 怎樣斷定投手的"生涯顛峰"?
※ 引述《goetz (雖九死其猶未悔)》之銘言:
: 知名的滾浪大這幾天提出了一個頗有爭議的論點,
: 他認為小王以他的年齡(27)歲來說,"目前的表現應該已經是生涯顛峰了 ",
: 可是問題是,27歲對投手來說已經是頂峰了嗎?
: 比方說這位先生:
: Year Ag W L BB SO ERA
: 1996 27 19 11 69 204 4.81
: 1997 28 15 8 54 218 3.20
: 1998 29 13 10 41 175 3.49
: 1999 30 18 7 52 172 3.50
: 2000 31 11 15 46 210 3.72
: 2001 32 17 11 42 214 3.15
: 2002 33 18 10 48 182 4.05
: 2003 34 17 8 40 195 3.40
: 他在28歲之後的表現才是真正的顛峰,而且維持一個很長的高原期,
: 所以說小王27"已經到達顛峰",我有點好奇到底是怎樣判斷的?
: 一個投手的"生涯顛峰"什麼時候到來,有辦法事先預估嗎?
醬醬啊
那就要用這兩位來反駁才貨真價實了
pitcher A
SEASON yr W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR HBP BB SO
1984 21 9 4 4.32 21 20 5 1 0 --- 133.1 146 67 64 13 2 29 126
1985 22 7 5 3.29 15 15 3 1 0 --- 98.1 83 38 36 5 3 37 74
1986 23 24 4 2.48 33 33 10 1 0 --- 254.0 179 77 70 21 4 67 238 CY
1987 24 20 9 2.97 36 36 18 7 0 --- 281.2 248 100 93 19 9 83 256 CY
1988 25 18 12 2.93 35 35 14 8 0 --- 264.0 217 93 86 17 6 62 291
1989 26 17 11 3.13 35 35 8 3 0 --- 253.1 215 101 88 20 8 93 230
1990 27 21 6 1.93 31 31 7 4 0 --- 228.1 193 59 49 7 7 54 209
1991 28 18 10 2.62 35 35 13 4 0 --- 271.1 219 93 79 15 5 65 241 CY
1992 29 18 11 2.41 32 32 11 5 0 --- 246.2 203 80 66 11 9 62 208
1993 30 11 14 4.46 29 29 2 1 0 --- 191.2 175 99 95 17 11 67 160
哭哭,衰退了
1994 31 9 7 2.85 24 24 3 1 0 --- 170.2 124 62 54 15 4 71 168
我又回神了
1995 32 10 5 4.18 23 23 0 0 0 --- 140.0 141 70 65 15 14 60 132
我又衰退了
1996 33 10 13 3.63 34 34 6 2 0 --- 242.2 216 106 98 19 4 106 257
1997 34 21 7 2.05 34 34 9 3 0 --- 264.0 204 65 60 9 12 68 292 CY
我又回神了
1998 35 20 6 2.65 33 33 5 3 0 --- 234.2 169 78 69 11 7 88 271 CY
1999 36 14 10 4.60 30 30 1 1 0 0 187.2 185 101 96 20 9 90 163
我又衰退了
2000 37 13 8 3.70 32 32 1 0 0 0 204.1 184 96 84 26 10 84 188
2001 38 20 3 3.51 33 33 0 0 0 0 220.1 205 94 86 19 5 72 213 CY
2002 39 13 6 4.35 29 29 0 0 0 0 180.0 172 94 87 18 7 63 192
2003 40 17 9 3.91 33 33 1 1 0 0 211.2 199 99 92 24 5 58 190
2004 41 18 4 2.98 33 33 0 0 0 0 214.1 169 76 71 15 6 79 218 CY
我又回神了,打我呀笨蛋
2005 42 13 8 1.87 32 32 1 0 0 0 211.1 151 51 44 11 3 62 185
2006 43 7 6 2.30 19 19 0 0 0 0 113.1 89 34 29 7 4 29 102
2007 44 6 6 4.18 18 17 0 0 0 0 99.0 99 52 46 9 5 31 68
pitcher B
SEASON yr W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR HBP BB SO
1988 24 3 0 2.42 4 4 1 0 0 --- 26.0 23 8 7 3 0 7 25
1989 25 0 4 6.67 7 6 0 0 0 --- 29.2 29 25 22 2 0 26 26
1989 25 7 9 4.40 22 22 2 0 0 --- 131.0 118 75 64 11 3 70 104
1990 26 14 11 3.65 33 33 5 2 0 --- 219.2 174 103 89 26 5 120 194
1991 27 13 10 3.98 33 33 2 1 0 --- 201.1 151 96 89 15 12 152 228
1992 28 12 14 3.77 31 31 6 2 0 --- 210.1 154 104 88 13 18 144 241
1993 29 19 8 3.24 35 34 10 3 1 --- 255.1 185 97 92 22 16 99 308
1994 30 13 6 3.19 23 23 9 4 0 --- 172.0 132 65 61 14 6 72 204
1995 31 18 2 2.48 30 30 6 3 0 --- 214.1 159 65 59 12 6 65 294 CY
嘿嘿,三十而立
1996 32 5 0 3.67 14 8 0 0 1 --- 61.1 48 27 25 8 2 25 85
1997 33 20 4 2.28 30 29 5 2 0 --- 213.0 147 60 54 20 10 77 291
1998 34 10 1 1.28 11 11 4 4 0 --- 84.1 57 12 12 4 3 26 116
1998 34 9 10 4.33 23 23 6 2 0 --- 160.0 146 90 77 19 11 60 213
囧,明星賽前賽揚,明星賽後賽陰陽
1999 35 17 9 2.48 35 35 12 2 0 0 271.2 207 86 75 30 9 70 364 CY
2000 36 19 7 2.64 35 35 8 3 0 0 248.2 202 89 73 23 6 76 347 CY
2001 37 21 6 2.49 35 34 3 2 0 0 249.2 181 74 69 19 18 71 372 CY
2002 38 24 5 2.32 35 35 8 4 0 0 260.0 197 78 67 26 13 71 334 CY
連續四年,誰能贏我,我要到37才是巔峰!!
2003 39 6 8 4.26 18 18 1 1 0 0 114.0 125 61 54 16 8 27 125
2004 40 16 14 2.60 35 35 4 2 0 0 245.2 177 88 71 18 10 44 290
2005 41 17 8 3.79 34 34 4 0 0 0 225.2 207 102 95 32 12 47 211
2006 42 17 11 5.00 33 33 2 0 0 0 205.0 194 125 114 28 10 60 172
2007 43 4 3 3.81 10 10 0 0 0 0 56.2 52 26 24 7 4 13 72
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