Re: [請問] 期望值矛盾的問題???已回收
※ 引述《Stevenashh (YO!!!)》之銘言:
: 一個擲銅板的game
: 參賽費用10w元
: 擲到正面給你2元
: 再擲到正面給你4元
: 再擲到8元.....
: ....
: 可以玩到你擲到反面為止
: 那算期望值的話不是2*1/2 + 4*1/4 + 8*1/8 +.....
: =1+1+1+1+1+1..............=無限
: 期望值遠大於參加費
: 那這樣子不是矛盾了嗎??
: 可是一般人並不會想拿10萬元參加這個遊戲
: 原因是什麼??
算了一下 這其實是數學問題
這個遊戲的期望值跟玩的次數有關
「只」玩一次 期望值是1元
「只」玩兩次 期望值是2元
如果玩一次要十萬元
那要讓期望值大於0 必須玩至少十萬次
所以玩家要先準備一百億
然後就「可能」會獲利十萬
如此付出跟獲利完全不成比例的情況
就是這遊戲沒人玩的原因
--
Sent from my Android
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