貨櫃航運股體質正在轉變中,正式揮別本淨比迷思
在2021年航運三雄的大飆漲行情中,無論當年獲利再怎麼高,市場仍是給予三雄本淨比的估
值,難以用正常的本益比估值來看待航運三雄,更遑論台股平均20倍~25倍本益比的估值,最
大的問題,就是因為航運股一向被人們視為景氣循環股。
但貨櫃航運股經過疫情期間的體質調整,已經把運費的天花板不斷往上衝擊,而且這兩年來
,各大航商已經愈來愈有默契不再打破這個盈虧的平衡線,虧錢的生意漸漸不會有人做,大
家有默契一同朝著共好的方向前進,因此往後獲利的穩定度將比2021年前大幅提升,即便每
年新增運力都還在持續增長中,但殺價競爭的情況漸漸消彌後,可望迎來更穩定的年年獲利
,讓貨櫃航運股正式揮別景氣循環股的緊箍咒,體質脫胎換骨的改變,換句話說,今年的獲利
縱使沒有比2021~2022年要好,也縱使紅海危機沒有延燒過久,最終運價回到平均的正常值,
但是仍勢必享有比當年更高的本益比。
而三雄來看,最有本錢揮別景氣循環股,成為年年獲利的績優生,非長榮莫屬,在手現金水位
高,船舶新穎,營運成本較低,航線多,營運體質明顯比另外兩雄好,由於體質逐年改善,市場
若能開始接受以本益比來估值,原本貨櫃航運股0.5~2倍本淨比的估值,將一躍變成10倍~20
倍的本益比估值,那麼若以長榮今年2024年稅後淨利48.27元的估值,相信長榮目前193.5元
的價位勢必只是出發點而已,突破194.5元的頸線後,若下一站再突破233元,接下來就海闊
天空,看台股投資人要用多少倍的本益比去重新定義它的價值了。
https://i.imgur.com/Kc8wPdI.png
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