[新聞] 陽明鄭貞茂：供應鏈瓶頸將舒緩
原文標題：Major Shipping Firm Sees Signs of Supply-Chain Bottlenecks Easing
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原文連結：https://bloom.bg/3khO5gz
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發布時間：2022年4月28日 GMT+8 上午6:00
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原文內容：
Port bottlenecks that have increased supply-chain congestion because of the wa
r in Ukraine and lockdowns in China may be showing signs of easing, according
to one of the world’s biggest shipping companies.
Currently, the number of ships waiting outside of the ports in Los Angeles and
Long Beach have been reduced to less than 40, from more than 100 earlier this
year, according to Cheng Cheng-mount, chairman of Taiwan-based Yang Ming Mari
ne Transport Corp. The waiting time for ships at Shanghai ports is two or thre
e days, compared with 10 to 14 days at the U.S. ports.
“I think this is a good sign that the port congestion has been easing” in th
e U.S., Cheng said in an interview Tuesday. “We foresee in the second half, e
verything will become smooth. All the difficulties will be easier.”
As for China’s strict lockdowns in Shanghai and other cities to battle Covid-
19 outbreaks, he sees the global impact as a “short-term phenomenon” that sh
ould be limited to second-quarter operations. He expects Beijing to adjust its
Covid policy, and the nation’s economy to rebound in the second half of the
year.
Cheng’s view comes as supply chains have faced years of turmoil brought on by
trade wars and the pandemic. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s lockd
owns threaten to escalate the disruptions, with many in the industry expecting
the impact to ripple globally throughout the year.
Global Supply Chain Crisis Flares Up Again Where It All Began
While shipping operations are improving in Shanghai and factories are graduall
y restarting, containers are still piling up in ports because of a shortage of
trucks. Once bunched-up cargo vessels start sailing again, logistics experts
warn of a flood of containers clogging U.S. and European ports.
Congestion in Shanghai ports has increased about 30% to 40% as of April 25 sin
ce the beginning of March, though it’s still lower than the peak during the t
hird quarter last year, S&P Global Market Intelligence said in an emailed repo
rt Thursday. With bottlenecks in northern Chinese ports, vessels are seeking a
lternatives, which will likely increase congestion in southern ports, the repo
rt said.
Global trade growth is projected to slow to 5% this year from an estimated 10.
1% in 2021, according to an International Monetary Fund report.
“I agree that the trade is going to slow down, and this is due to the war in
Ukraine, and also delayed demand from Covid,” Cheng said, adding that the glo
bal recovery is expected to “take a break” before resuming its growth moment
um. “We are rather optimistic.”
Cheng expects measures by the U.S. government to speed flows at ports -- such
as rules to immediately move empty containers -- will gradually kick in and ea
se the congestion in the second half. Once the logjams improve, he said, it wi
ll lead to lower freight rates.
Cheng, who was a former Citigroup Inc. chief economist, sees globalization evo
lving as trading patterns shift. Supply chains will become more regional and s
horter amid rising transportation costs. With tensions between the U.S. and Ch
ina continuing, supply chains will be split into two systems that each operate
“inside a bubble” and navigate away from sanctions.
Yang Ming is the world’s ninth biggest container carrier in terms of fleet ca
pacity, according to Alphaliner’s data. Surging demand amid the pandemic and
supply chain crunch helped boost earnings of many shipping companies including
Yang Ming to a record last year, and the strong growth momentum continued int
o the first quarter as freight rates soared.
The company’s sales for the first three months surged 71% from a year earlier
, to a record NT$106.7 billion ($3.6 billion). Yang Ming, however, has been ra
ted low in on-time reliability, coming in 13th among 14 major carriers in a Fe
bruary ranking, according to data by Sea-Intelligence.
“Our capacity is fully booked,” Cheng said, “My biggest concern now is how
to satisfy clients’ demands.”
A major uncertainty for next year is whether the market can digest the supply
of new ships built over the past few years amid an industry upcycle. Growth in
supply in 2023 is expected to double from this year, outpacing rising demand,
Cheng said, citing a forecast from Alphaliner.
“This is the reason we need to strengthen our financial structure,” Cheng sa
id, adding that the company is watching the issue carefully. “If there is ove
rsupply or decline of freight rates, we will be ready.”
— With assistance by Brendan Murray
(Updates with analyst note in seventh paragraph.)
心得/評論：
大意就是陽明認為隨中國解除封鎖 以及美國要求空櫃加速撤離 全球供應鏈瓶頸將緩解
H2將會明顯改善 運價下跌 塊陶啊
--
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1651122807.A.C50.html
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