Re: [新聞] 台積電打趴三星 傳蘋果加碼下訂單
※ 引述《luckysmallsu (B.J.T)》之銘言:
: 問個外行問題 手機晶片成長是否真的已飽和了?
: 雖然大家都說一堆人排隊等GG代工
: 但現在除了阿婆到底誰還有這麼大的產能?
你應該說定單 不是產能
是說最近幾個月GG不是說財報不太優
先進製程晶圓市場
憑個人印象估計(絕對不準 僅供參考):
1.x86cpu 約25b
2.手機cpu/ap 約15b
3.gpu <5b
4.FPGA 沒幾b
5.其他 不知道
還有很多應用大概會卡在28nm很久
因為28->16每電晶體成本是略微上升
除非有效能功耗需求然後市場利潤足夠填補研發成本的
才會轉往16以下
2的話GG吃很大塊 只是真的快飽和惹
3基本上差不多GG通吃 實質上衰退中 VR成功的話成長力很強 不過起碼三年後再來看看
4的話因為altera被intel併購 影響說多不多說少不少
基本上捏
GG如果想要維持這數年來強力成長的勢頭
往1擠可以說是直接明確的作法
所以麻我常常在講
GG/台灣政府快點去找amd合作
mubadala因為油價跌到崩潰都想閃惹
現在插手正是時候
amd下一代zen core效能不用懷疑惹
我前同事都說lab裡面測很爽
我講白惹喇
蔡英文跟民進黨的科技政策幕僚
如果有點腦的話
明年上台馬上捧錢去amd弄幾個董事的位子
然後要他們在台灣開研發中心出貨中心OOXX中心
擺脫GF 單子全下GG
一口氣把intel幹爆
intel一年營收50b 大過台灣GDP的10%
這50b就算只有10b進惹台灣人口袋 也很恐怖
台灣如果想靠半導體來633
這是最後機會
錯過就沒惹
其他像誤連網的不用想惹
做起來的時候市場也爛惹
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