[心得] 我不認為美國會升息的理由
很多人一直在猜下週FED是否會升息,但我的想法是他們不升的機率很高,
而且可能到明年大選前都不會升.
美國失業率是下降,問題就葉倫的立場是只要有一項不支持升息的理由,
她就不會升息,光論實質薪資與實質就業率變化與通膨來說就沒有太多升息空間,
房價這幾年當然是漲,可是今年的年增率不過5-6%,
真要升息好歹也是雙位數的漲幅才會升吧,市場更擔心假若升息,
影響了美國的房地產市場,重演二房風暴那怎麼辦?
偏偏美國的低利率持續那麼久,景氣擴張期也刷新紀錄,
追求永續成長為大下也沒人敢去賭升息可能砸鍋的後果,
所以我認為月中的升息論雷聲大雨點小,到後來又不了了之可能性高.
12月呢? 也不一定會升,假若12月不升下次再檢討利率
恐怕是明年大選後新總統就職的事了,過往美國從未有在大選年升息的紀錄,
這次理應不會破例,何況選情為重下更不敢冒險.
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