Re: [問題] WPA
※ 引述《Romulus (Säubern Mode)》之銘言：
: 剛剛翻網頁時看到這個，有人說用WPA來看Ortiz「巨幅」領先其他人（@8/13）
: ，不只是Jeter，更包括Manny。
: 可是他內文解釋的WPA理論我相當無法認同和理解，請問有人對WPA有研究的嗎？
Like Win Shares, WPA is not a good predictive statistic because it's not
necessarily a good representation of a player's true talent. If a player hits
a home run in the ninth inning of a 1-0 game, he is credited with more WPA
points than if he hits a home run in the first inning of a 1-0 game. The
talent is the ability to hit the home run; when it happens in a game is
something that is pretty random. When you are thinking of acquiring a player
for your fantasy team, you should rely more on the traditional sabermetric
stats, like Linear Weights, Runs Created, DIPS, etc. etc
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-one-about-win-probability/
另外一篇
WPA Curiosities
I logged today’s A’s-Twins game in my WPA spreadsheet and found some
curious things. Frank Thomas was voted the Game MVP (rightfully, in my
opinion), but he actually finished third on the A’s in WPA, behind Zito and
Street. Thomas’s home runs occurred in less critical situations: the second
inning, when the LI was just 0.89, and in the ninth with the A’s up 2-1 (LI
of 0.70), so the WPA of each home run was just under .10 in both cases.
There were several bigger hits in the game, including Scutaro’s double in
the second (.103) and Jason Bartlett’s double in the eighth with none out
and the Twins down by a run (.166). Also, the flyball that Milton Bradley
lost in the Metrodome roof was worth .166 WPA, too. Those were the two
biggest plays of the game.
So Frank Thomas, who homered for two of the A’s three runs, didn’t lead the
team in WPA and didn’t even have the biggest hits of the game. Go figure.
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WPA的瑕疵還蠻多的
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