Re: [轉錄][情報] 紅襪出到142M/7年簽Crawford

看板RedSox作者seekforever (sadnessflower)時間13年前 (2010/12/09 23:01)推噓15(15推 0噓 0→)

留言15則, 10人參與討論串9/11 (看更多)

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/boston-signs-carl-crawford/ Dave Cameron(Fangraphs站長) says.... Despite acquiring Adrian Gonzalez on Sunday, the Boston Red Sox have taken a back seat to the Yankees down here in Orlando. With Derek Jeter re-signing and holding an angry press conference, as well as their open pursuit of Cliff Lee, the meetings have centered around New York’s activity. Not anymore- with Carl Crawford in the fold, the Red Sox have stolen the show. In general, reaction to the deal among people I talked to in Orlando was mostly negative, as $142 million for Carl Crawford is a big number. As a guy who gets a lot of value from his speed and defense, he isn’t the type of player to land a contract of this size. As Ken Rosenthal mentioned on Twitter, this is $50 million more than the next highest contract in baseball history for a guy who had never hit 20 or more home runs in a season- Ichiro’ s previous record of $90 million for five years just got blown out of the water. 大多數參加冬季會議的人反應都是負面的因為認為Crawford大部分的價值來自腿跟防守而且這份合約比起一朗的約還多了50M Just because it is unique, however, doesn’t mean it is automatically bad. Defense has historically been undervalued in the market, and while not everyone agrees with the conclusions reached by defensive metrics all the time, I have never met anyone who thinks that Carl Crawford is anything besides a great defensive left fielder. His speed and defense package are among the best in the game, and he’s a pretty good hitter too. 特別的事情不見得就是不好防守的價值在歷史上長期被低估雖然各項防守數據有所不同但Crawford毫無異議地在防守上是偉大的左外野手他同時也是很好的打者 Over the last two years, the only position players with a higher WAR than Crawford are Albert Pujols, Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Joe Mauer, and Chase Utley. Crawford is ahead of sluggers like Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, and Miguel Cabrera, but as we saw with Gonzalez’s extension, that kind of money for their skillset is considered acceptable. Just because Crawford creates wins in a different way doesn’t make those wins less valuable. If you buy into Crawford being an elite defender, then he is worth this contract, and maybe even a little bit more. 在過去兩年WAR比他高的只有Pujols Longoria Zimmerman Mauer Utley Crawford的WAR甚至勝過A-Gon Votto 小卡布而正如A-Gon傳聞中的延長合約對這些最有天份的球員給這樣的合約是可以接受的 Crawford只是以不一樣的方式對勝利做出貢獻但並不會讓那些勝利比較沒有價值如果你同意Crawford在防守上的精英數據是可靠的那麼他就值這樣的合約(金額或許多了一些) But there is an argument to be made that left field in Boston is perhaps the worst place in baseball for a guy with great range to make an impact defensively. The Green Monster turns a lot of potential outs in other parks into base hits in Fenway, which may diminish Crawford’s ability to perform at the same level as he did in Tampa Bay. The Red Sox might have to consider shifting Crawford to right field, where his speed could be better utilized to maximize his value. 有一種質疑是Fenway的左外野將對他的防守價值會有所折損綠色怪物讓很多其他球場的飛球出局變成安打可能得考慮把他移到右外野讓他盡情馳騁以極大化他的價值 Even as a left fielder, though, I think he can earn this money. If we assume Crawford is a +5 win player, $5 million per win is the going rate this winter, and a standard aging curve that knocks off half a win per season, inflation “only” needs to be six percent annually per year going forward for Crawford’s projected value to come out to $142 million. Given that Crawford is only 29, he might be able to sustain a +5 win peak for another year or two, which would push his value even higher. 就算他守左外野我還是認為他值這個價假定Crawford可以比replacement level的球員多帶來5勝每勝大約值5M 年齡曲線讓他每年的貢獻少0.5勝只要通膨率在6% 他的預估價值就會有142M 考量到他才29 貢獻5勝的數據可能還可以維持一兩年他的預估價值只會更高 Are the Red Sox taking a big risk that Crawford won’t suffer some kind of leg injury that destroys all of his value at once? Sure, they are, but that risk is there with nearly any kind of player you sign to a deal this large. This skillset ages pretty well, and, barring injury, Crawford should be one of the premier players in the game for the next three or four years. Add in that the wins Crawford add could be the difference between making the playoffs and sitting at home in a tough division, and there are actually a lot of reasons to like this deal for Boston. 襪襪難道不會冒太大風險嗎? 要是他的腳斷了怎麼辦? 確實有風險. 但什麼約沒有風險? 以他的能力如果不受傷的話未來三四年都會是全聯盟最棒的球員之一如果再考慮到Crawford多帶來的這幾勝可能可以讓襪襪在美東殺出重圍那會有更多理由讓我們喜歡這筆合約 They got a lot better today. Yes, it’s a lot of money for a guy who doesn’t do the things that traditionally earn a lot of money, but he’s worth it, especially to Boston. 這對襪襪來說是很棒的一天確實, 他們把一大筆錢給了一個不是做那些傳統上可以拿很多錢事情的人(大棒子) 但他值得. 特別是對襪襪而言. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.42.28.47 ※ 編輯: seekforever 來自: 114.42.28.47 (12/09 23:02)

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