Re: [心得] 期貨真的是零和嗎?
其實說成白話就是
一般人的投資規模會受資金影響
手上資金越多, 就會投入越多的資金
然而這往往造成虧損
Van K.Tharp作過一個實驗
他找了四十個人來玩一個勝率六成的賭局
每個人每次可以自由選擇下注的金額
贏的時候可以得到一倍的賭金, 輸的時候則沒收賭金
這個遊戲看起來對賭客有利, 期望值有1.2倍
然而當每個人都玩過一百局之後, 四十個人只有三個人賺錢
原因就是當你賺錢之後, 你會下更大的注, 導致之後的更大的損失
在上述這個例子中, 假設某人每次下注本金n%的賭金
那麼他的期望值就是: (1+n%)*(1+n%)*(1+n%)*(1-n%)*(1-n%)
當n>38, 期望值就小於1: 1.39*1.39*1.39*0.61*0.61=0.99931
如果是五成勝率的遊戲, 基本上n>0期望值就小於1
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