Re: [討論] Klay Thompson防守到底好不好?
※ 引述《derekhsu (華麗的天下無雙)》之銘言:
: 勇士隊的外線防守數據排行全聯盟第一,並不僅僅只是勇士隊不用防守
: Stephen Curry跟Klay Thompson而已,
我的立論很簡單:
在假定這句話的外線指的是三分線的情況下,我不認為勇士的外線防守數據是全聯盟第一。
到昨天為止,勇士對手的三分球命中率0.312,馬刺則是0.315
差距非常小,今天打完之後兩隊同為0.315
在此同時,勇士對手出手三分球的數字是1121次,馬刺則是984次,差距超過130次。
很多人認為這是比賽節奏造成的差異,但並非因此。
勇士對手三分線出手場均22.42次,馬刺則為19.29次,差距3.12次。
而兩隊的pace數,勇士99.6,馬刺94.3,差距5.3次
表示勇士的對手每場比賽平均比馬刺的對手多上5.3次進攻機會
這5.3次進攻機會,扣掉失誤之後(因為兩隊對手不同,這裡用聯盟平均的失誤比例13.4%)
能夠出手的次數為5.3*(1-0.134) = 4.589次
如果對手的三分出手差距是由於節奏的差異造成的,表示這4.59次出手當中,必須含有3.12次三分球
這比例有多高?0.679,接近68%
要知道,全聯盟最愛投三分的火箭,三分出手的比例不過是37.9%,遠遠不及68%
換句話說,即使消除了比賽節奏所帶來的影響,馬刺依舊是一支比勇士更能夠壓制對手三分出手的球隊。
或許有人認為壓制對手出手數不代表外線防守好,這我雖然不認同,但能尊重。只是既然馬刺和勇士在對手三分線命中率上不分軒輊,而馬刺顯然更能阻止對手的三分出手,要說勇士是全聯盟第一的外線防守球隊,我認為是很有待商榷的。
以上論述完畢,有問題請不要客氣。
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Sent from JPTT on my Sony D6653.
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