Re: [討論] Joe Maddon:“the bunt is an overrated
※ 引述《searoar (暗坑大豆)》之銘言：
: http://tinyurl.com/bqf3bb2
: is an overrated play.”
: Using the expected runs matrix at Baseball Prospectus (using 2012 data),
: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1122396
: runners on first and second with no outs yields 1.44 expected runs, while
: runners on second and third with one out yields 1.29 expected runs.
: 1.44>1.29 上太空的西瓜!!
: Theoretically, one would slightly reduce run expectancy by bunting. However,
: the certainty of scoring that one run goes up. Furthermore, bunting creates a
: more realistic opportunity for production than letting Loney, who posted a
: .630 OPS last season, swing away. Though I, like Maddon, think that bunting
: is overrated in many circumstances, that was not one of those situations.
: 但是給ＬＯＮＥＹ打就輸了ＧＧ
這段的重點不在Loney。
作者要表達的是，，雖然期望值較高，但變異數也大，在這種比賽最末段，
只要得一分就很關鍵的情況下，既然都能夠得一分，為什麼不選得分機率較高的bunt?
比賽前段或是打擊大戰用bunt當如不如用free swing
但也不能光用期望值就直接判斷bunt一定比較差 像比賽末段一分差決勝負
要重視的是variance rather than the expected value.
與其說西瓜上太空，不如說又看到一個亂用數據的人 ( ￣ c￣)y▂ξ
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◆ From: 35.10.151.174
※ 編輯: gghh 來自: 35.10.151.174 (04/15 03:58)
推
04/15 04:47, , 1F
04/15 04:47, 1F
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04/15 05:32, , 2F
04/15 05:32, 2F
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04/15 07:26, , 3F
04/15 07:26, 3F
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04/15 07:32, , 4F
04/15 07:32, 4F
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04/15 09:59, 5F
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04/15 10:13, 7F
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04/15 10:39, , 12F
04/15 10:39, 12F
一般來說，機率高不就是因為var低嗎？
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04/15 14:07, , 13F
04/15 14:07, 13F
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04/15 14:08, , 14F
04/15 14:08, 14F
※ 編輯: gghh 來自: 35.10.151.174 (04/16 01:27)
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