Re: [爆卦] 川普幕僚團隊的臉書消失
The creatorof Dilbert Scott Adams posted a blog about Donald Trump's phone call with the President of Taiwan that was praised by conservatives and severely triggered liberals. Adams sees Trump as a Master Persuader and paving the way to a more peaceful relationship with China. "I explain Trump's Taiwan call through the Master Persuader Filter," writes Adams:
著名漫畫「呆伯特」的作者Scott Adams在他的網誌po了篇文,關於川普最近與台灣總統的一通電話為何被保守黨讚揚且讓其他人吱吱叫。Adams認為川普為「說服大師」,且能與中國之間鋪上一條和平大道。『我將使用說服大師分辨法來解釋川普與台灣通電這件事』Adams寫道。
Was this a mistake by Trump? If you look at this call through the filter of normal politics it is clearly a mistake. It provokes the Chinese leadership and gains nothing obvious in return. The media is reporting this event as exactly the sort of thing that leads to nuclear annihilation.
川普踏錯步下錯棋了嗎?如果你只以一般政治眼光來看的話,他顯然是犯錯了。此舉觸動了中國的領導階層且沒有任何顯著的回報。媒體也認為這件事將導致大核平時代。
This is the same mainstream media that got everything wrong about Trump for the past year. But if you look at this situation through the filter of a Master Persuader, it makes perfect sense. Trump is “setting the table” for future negotiations with China.
但這也是過去一年來一直搞錯川普的主流媒體意見。如果你透過「說服大師分辨法」來看,這步棋是再適合不過了。川普正在為未來與中國之間的談判佈局。
He just subtracted something from China’s brand that they value, and later he will negotiate with them to maybe give it back in some fashion. Probably in return for some trade concessions. But what about the risk? Does it ever make sense to poke a nuclear power?
他只是先拿走一些中國所看重的東西,晚一點就可以以此逼迫中國用別的方式來換,有可能是經濟貿易上的讓步。但是這麼做沒風險嗎?觸動大核平時代真的沒問題嗎?
In this case, probably yes. As I have said in this blog before, China’s leadership is both mature and competent. Many of them have engineering degrees. They understand what Trump is doing, and none of it is a path to war because neither side has any interest in war. None. Zero.
以這件事來說,十有八九沒問題。我之前在網誌中就寫過,中國的領導階級相當成熟且有能力,不少人是理工宅宅。他們明白川普在打什麼算盤,更何況雙方都不想打仗,因此這一切都不會導致戰爭。不會,就醬。
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