Re: [討論] 美國利率與美國股市
: Thanks for correcting my grammar. It is helpful to me. Thank you very much.
: A question here is the relationship between interest rate and stock market.
: Recently, I read two papers (Rapach et al., 2005; Rapach & Wohar, 2006)
: about the predicting stock returns with macro and financial variables.
: Using monthly and quarterly data, the empirical results show that the lag of
: interest rate can predict the stock returns, and the regression coefficient is
: negative and significant. However, the R-squared is pretty low.
: Thus, you are right in the argument that it is not easy to predict the stock
: returns even the regression coefficient is significant. However, according to
: the previous literature, the relationship for these two variables is negative.
: In fact, there are two potential problems in previous studies. First, they use
: lag of interest rate (term rate, default spread, shot rate, relative rate) to
: predict stock returns, so they find a negative relationship between the interest
: rate and stock returns. If we use the simultaneous regression model, we may
: find a different story (However, I think this possibility is relative low).
: Second, previous studies use the level interest rate to predict stock returns.
: As we know, the interest rate might be a non-stationary process. There may
: exist a spurious regression in the previous studies. Similarly, I think this
: potential econometric problem is considered in Rapach et al (2005) and
: Rapach and Wohar (2006) since Rapach familiarizes with econometric model.
: I am not an economist. I just point out the potential problems.
: So if you have any comment or suggestion on this issue, I will very happy
: to discuss with you. Moreover, if you are interested in this issue,
: I have the data used in Rapach et al (2005) and Rapach and Wohar (2006) so that
: I can share with you.
: Thanks agian for correcting my errors. If I have any error in this article,
: you are welcome to point out that.
: Sincerely,
: H-S Lee
我的回答只是由實證研究的角度來說明落後一期的利率如何對股市影響。
如果你看不懂，請告知我，我幫您解釋，
如果您發現文法錯誤，請糾正我，我可以修改。
我想，這個議題大家有自己的看法，
我只是引起用過去文獻，告知大家這個議題過去的研究結果，
和過去研究的潛在問題。
大致是這樣。
關於英文寫作，我必須還是要練習啦，請大家包含和指導，
有問題儘管提出，我會修改。
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