Re: [討論] 美國利率與美國股市
※ 引述《hsiuchuanwin (win)》之銘言：
: ※ 引述《phelyl (殘念......)》之銘言：
: : 美國利率的升息和降息常常是財經媒體的焦點
: : 可是有一個矛盾我不太懂想請教版友
: : 調升利率不是要在經濟循環處於成長狀態才會這樣做以抑制經濟過熱
: : 而美國調升利率
: : 不正代表了美國的經濟狀態很好
: : 但相反的
: : 最近卻聽到美國的經濟成長走緩所以要調降利率
: : 調降利率不是會降低資金的成本對股市是利多
: : 那如果要投資美股
: : 是要在美國調升利率的狀況下較佳
: : 還是調降利率的狀況下較佳
: As economy (market) is boom, the inflation would be likely to increase.
boom is a verb and noun, but not a adjective
economy=\=boom
: Thus, if you get information about an increase in interest rate, you should
: know stock market would go to a bear market. In contrast, if you know the Fed
: will lower interest rate, you should know stock market would go to a bull
: market. As I know, the relationship between interest rate and stock market is
: negative.
: Best regards.
You should identify which stage the economy locates in. When the economy
is recoverying from the bottom of business cycle, the Fed will start to raise
interest rate. Howeverever, the stock market would go to a bull market.
The Fed will continue to raise interest rate until parts of economic indices
show that the economy is turning down.
As we know, a business cycle take several years. If we run the econometric
model, we should find a positive relationship.(I guess)
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