Re: [討論] 美國利率與美國股市
※ 引述《hsiuchuanwin (win)》之銘言：
: ※ 引述《liton (歐吉桑留學生)》之銘言：
: : You should identify which stage the economy locates in. When the economy
: : is recoverying from the bottom of business cycle, the Fed will start to raise
: : interest rate. Howeverever, the stock market would go to a bull market.
: : The Fed will continue to raise interest rate until parts of economic indices
: : show that the economy is turning down.
: : As we know, a business cycle take several years. If we run the econometric
: : model, we should find a positive relationship.(I guess)
: Thanks for correcting my grammar. It is helpful to me. Thank you very much.
: A question here is the relationship between interest rate and stock market.
: Recently, I read two papers (Rapach et al., 2005; Rapach & Wohar, 2006)
: about the predicting stock returns with macro and financial variables.
: Using monthly and quarterly data, the empirical results show that the lag of
: interest rate can predict the stock returns, and the regression coefficient is
: negative and significant. However, the R-squared is pretty low.
1. Stock market is a leading indicator. (about 6 mo.)
2. Buy the second raise, Sell the second cut.
3. FED only cares about bad inflation and market crash. nothing more.
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