[情報] 92W TCFA
看板TY_Research作者keroromoa (何時能把腦子用在約會上)時間5年前 (2018/07/14 09:28)推噓113(113推 0噓 81→)留言194則, 79人參與討論串8/10 (看更多)
http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9218web.txt
WTPN21 PGTW 140200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.4N 137.0E TO 20.0N 127.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
140130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N
136.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.2N 138.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 136.0E, APPROXIMATELY
625 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 132113Z
WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH
AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF
THE LLCC. A 132348Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 15 TO 20 KNOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 14/0000Z SHIP REPORT
AT 20.0N 135.8E, 25NM NNW OF THE CENTER, INDICATES NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AT 22 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1003MB, WHICH SHOWS SOME
STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TUTT
CELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150200Z.//
NNNN
目前預測仍是以92W取得主導權獲得山神名字機會較高,以通過巴士海峽的預測為主流,
後期通過恆春南方後的速度和方向目前仍是一日數變,
台海北上或一路西行至珠三角甚至粵西海南一帶都有,速度也有很大的分歧
未來須密切觀察並注意海邊風浪。
--
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※ 編輯: keroromoa (101.136.242.152), 07/14/2018 09:29:21
※ 編輯: keroromoa (101.136.242.152), 07/14/2018 09:31:14
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※ 編輯: keroromoa (101.136.242.152), 07/14/2018 10:25:37
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那來講一下大綱好了
1.ASCAT掃描顯示LLCC東側有大片風速15~20kts的區域,
北側則實測22kts的風速和1003hpa的氣壓,
因此估計這個系統最大風速約為18~23kts。
2.雖然依照現有的資料並不完全支持現在這個階段就發出熱帶氣旋形成預警,
但是基於TUTT帶來良好的高空輻散提供系統優良的環境,
全球模式亦指出該系統未來兩天會持續西行並逐漸發展,
因此調升未來24小時形成熱帶系統的機率為高。
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※ 編輯: keroromoa (101.136.141.5), 07/14/2018 12:15:24
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※ 編輯: keroromoa (101.136.141.5), 07/14/2018 12:18:20
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還有 119 則推文
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