[情報] 92W TCFA

看板TY_Research作者v63718x4時間9年前 (2014/07/10 16:12)推噓10(10推 0噓 10→)

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警報原網址：http://goo.gl/ncJhd9 圖：http://goo.gl/GlTt8A WTPN21 PGTW 100730 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5N 152.7E TO 12.9N 146.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 100700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 151.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 152.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 151.7E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 100608Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. AN OLDER 092308Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION AND ISOLATED 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND BARBS OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL OUTFLOW, ONE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WESTWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS DEVELOP THIS DISTURBANCE IN VARYING DEGREES WITH THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BEING GFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION, IMPROVING ORGANZIATION AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 110730Z. // NNNN 最近西太越來越熱鬧了XD 這隻看起來前景大好阿......準雷馬遜(Rammasun，原意為雷神)!! reference: 颱風命名, http://goo.gl/sWutAe 聯合颱風警報中心, http://goo.gl/zFhE57 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 118.163.12.157 ※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1404979960.A.A85.html

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killseven

07/10 16:27, , 1^F

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maverick01

07/10 16:38, , 2^F

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v63718x4

07/10 16:44, , 3^F

07/10 16:44, 3^F