[情報] 93W TCFA
老J發TCFA囉~~~準天鴿颱風
簡要翻譯一下重點:
1.寬闊的LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
2.垂直風切小(5-10kts)、偏高海溫(31度)、良好外流
3.模式顯示在未來12~36h會有發展,可能朝台灣一帶靠近
---
EC今天00Z系集預報:
93W http://i.imgur.com/sjxe6DG.jpg
---
WTPN21 PGTW 191400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 130
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.3N 130.7E TO 21.7N 125.5E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 191200Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 129.5E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING FORMATIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 190927Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN CURVED BANDING ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN FLANKS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
ANIMATION, THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. ALSO, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM (31C) AND SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN 12-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARDS TAIWAN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW
OF THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND HEIGHTENED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
201400Z.//
NNNN
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 114.36.129.31
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1503153795.A.31C.html
※ 編輯: jasonccr (114.36.129.31), 08/19/2017 22:46:27
推
08/19 22:45, , 1F
08/19 22:45, 1F
※ 編輯: jasonccr (114.36.129.31), 08/19/2017 22:46:52
※ 編輯: jasonccr (114.36.129.31), 08/19/2017 22:47:28
推
08/19 22:47, , 2F
08/19 22:47, 2F
→
08/19 22:48, , 3F
08/19 22:48, 3F
推
08/19 22:48, , 4F
08/19 22:48, 4F
推
08/19 22:48, , 5F
08/19 22:48, 5F
※ 編輯: jasonccr (114.36.129.31), 08/19/2017 22:50:07
※ 編輯: jasonccr (114.36.129.31), 08/19/2017 22:52:29
推
08/19 22:53, , 6F
08/19 22:53, 6F
推
08/19 22:55, , 7F
08/19 22:55, 7F
→
08/19 22:55, , 8F
08/19 22:55, 8F
→
08/19 22:58, , 9F
08/19 22:58, 9F
→
08/19 23:00, , 10F
08/19 23:00, 10F
→
08/19 23:01, , 11F
08/19 23:01, 11F
推
08/19 23:01, , 12F
08/19 23:01, 12F
推
08/19 23:02, , 13F
08/19 23:02, 13F
推
08/19 23:03, , 14F
08/19 23:03, 14F
推
08/19 23:10, , 15F
08/19 23:10, 15F
推
08/19 23:12, , 16F
08/19 23:12, 16F
推
08/19 23:12, , 17F
08/19 23:12, 17F
推
08/19 23:13, , 18F
08/19 23:13, 18F
推
08/19 23:13, , 19F
08/19 23:13, 19F
→
08/19 23:14, , 20F
08/19 23:14, 20F
→
08/19 23:15, , 21F
08/19 23:15, 21F
推
08/19 23:16, , 22F
08/19 23:16, 22F
推
08/19 23:17, , 23F
08/19 23:17, 23F
推
08/19 23:17, , 24F
08/19 23:17, 24F
→
08/19 23:17, , 25F
08/19 23:17, 25F
→
08/19 23:17, , 26F
08/19 23:17, 26F
→
08/19 23:18, , 27F
08/19 23:18, 27F
推
08/19 23:20, , 28F
08/19 23:20, 28F
→
08/19 23:26, , 29F
08/19 23:26, 29F
推
08/19 23:26, , 30F
08/19 23:26, 30F
→
08/19 23:27, , 31F
08/19 23:27, 31F
→
08/19 23:27, , 32F
08/19 23:27, 32F
推
08/19 23:30, , 33F
08/19 23:30, 33F
→
08/19 23:31, , 34F
08/19 23:31, 34F
→
08/19 23:31, , 35F
08/19 23:31, 35F
推
08/19 23:31, , 36F
08/19 23:31, 36F
推
08/19 23:31, , 37F
08/19 23:31, 37F
→
08/19 23:32, , 38F
08/19 23:32, 38F
推
08/19 23:32, , 39F
08/19 23:32, 39F
→
08/19 23:32, , 40F
08/19 23:32, 40F
→
08/19 23:34, , 41F
08/19 23:34, 41F
推
08/19 23:36, , 42F
08/19 23:36, 42F
推
08/19 23:46, , 43F
08/19 23:46, 43F
→
08/19 23:56, , 44F
08/19 23:56, 44F
推
08/19 23:58, , 45F
08/19 23:58, 45F
推
08/20 00:03, , 46F
08/20 00:03, 46F
→
08/20 00:04, , 47F
08/20 00:04, 47F
→
08/20 00:05, , 48F
08/20 00:05, 48F
推
08/20 00:12, , 49F
08/20 00:12, 49F
推
08/20 00:35, , 50F
08/20 00:35, 50F
推
08/20 00:39, , 51F
08/20 00:39, 51F
推
08/20 00:40, , 52F
08/20 00:40, 52F
→
08/20 00:40, , 53F
08/20 00:40, 53F
→
08/20 00:40, , 54F
08/20 00:40, 54F
→
08/20 00:40, , 55F
08/20 00:40, 55F
推
08/20 00:41, , 56F
08/20 00:41, 56F
→
08/20 00:41, , 57F
08/20 00:41, 57F
→
08/20 00:42, , 58F
08/20 00:42, 58F
→
08/20 00:42, , 59F
08/20 00:42, 59F
→
08/20 00:42, , 60F
08/20 00:42, 60F
→
08/20 00:44, , 61F
08/20 00:44, 61F
→
08/20 01:00, , 62F
08/20 01:00, 62F
推
08/20 01:05, , 63F
08/20 01:05, 63F
→
08/20 01:06, , 64F
08/20 01:06, 64F
→
08/20 01:07, , 65F
08/20 01:07, 65F
→
08/20 01:08, , 66F
08/20 01:08, 66F
→
08/20 01:09, , 67F
08/20 01:09, 67F
→
08/20 01:10, , 68F
08/20 01:10, 68F
推
08/20 02:30, , 69F
08/20 02:30, 69F
→
08/20 02:30, , 70F
08/20 02:30, 70F
→
08/20 02:32, , 71F
08/20 02:32, 71F
→
08/20 02:32, , 72F
08/20 02:32, 72F
→
08/20 02:33, , 73F
08/20 02:33, 73F
推
08/20 07:41, , 74F
08/20 07:41, 74F
推
08/20 09:28, , 75F
08/20 09:28, 75F
推
08/20 09:39, , 76F
08/20 09:39, 76F
推
08/20 21:26, , 77F
08/20 21:26, 77F
→
08/20 21:26, , 78F
08/20 21:26, 78F
討論串 (同標題文章)
完整討論串 (本文為第 12 之 13 篇):
情報
2
2
情報
4
6
情報
2
2
情報
8
8
情報
41
106
情報
35
53
情報
35
61
情報
9
11
情報
10
33
情報
9
11