[情報] 93W TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 260800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.7N 118.1E TO 16.2N 113.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
260730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N
117.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N
117.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.5E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM WEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES 15-20 KNOT WIND BARBS EMBEDDED IN THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ARE PERENIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMROVED UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270800Z. //
NNNN
HKO
此外,南中國海的氣壓頗低,一個熱帶性低氣壓正在形成中
蝴蝶這個名字看來還是要被搶走了
私心希望蝴蝶飛來台灣的夢是破滅了
--
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