[討論] 中央氣象局在海棠的預報/實測表現
下面就中央氣象局對海棠的預報及實測反應表現
1.中心氣壓:預測990HPa,實際近風眼外圍的恆春有測得985HPa左右
對照JMA在颱風登陸前仍調整至985HPa
2.瞬間陣風:預測最大10級風,實際近風眼外圍的恆春有測得11級風
3.預測路徑:登陸前後各一報仍預測走台灣東部海岸路線,實際走西部平原路線
在西部陸地7小時50分(16:40~00:30),為最後才修改路徑為西部路
線的預測單位之一
4.預測雨量:這邊再持續觀察,因為路徑預測的不準確及MCS的發展
可能有上調的趨勢,雨量的準確概估有其難度
5.強度維持:預測在台灣陸地上降為熱帶性低氣壓,實際至早上5點仍
為輕度颱風,與3的預測失準有關
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