Re: [新聞] 報豪雨卻放晴 氣象局:高估鋒面
氣象局會被多數人批的原因我想是,
每次預報災害, 口氣用詞都太滿了;
以這次為例,明知天氣有這麼多的不確定性,卻破天荒提早預報災害性大雨,
這在一般沒有專業氣象知識的民眾來看,會認為有99%以上的準確性,
人類掌握氣象的能力本來就還很不足,但多數民眾並無此認知,
不知是否氣象局拉不下臉承認,並強調這點;
其實若氣象局以後進行類似災害預報時,
能多強調"有很大可能性", "仍請民眾注意",而非自信滿滿的用詞,
至少民眾雖可能認為只有75-85%準確, 但仍有警覺性,
當預報不準時,對氣象局失望感也不至那麼大.
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