[請益] 美債殖利率走高對經濟的影響為何?
這兩週US10Y持續衝高目前正突破4.6中
想到去年衝到5%那時的背景其實也很神奇
因為當時數據似乎已經有回落跡象
FED也沒有持續放鷹說會加息
但市場預期導致美債殖利率一直攀升
直到碰到5%沒多久就開始回落
事後FED也表示當時沒有再升一碼的原因
就是因為「市場預期導致利率走高已經形成足夠的限制性,所以沒有再加息」
對於這點不是很明白所以想來請教前輩
我的理解是美債殖利率是交易出來的結果
債券遭到拋售>價跌>殖利率上升
但真正影響經濟的應該還是聯邦基準利率
既然聯邦基準利率都沒有改變
那殖利率是4%或5%又是如何影響經濟,產生「足夠的限制性」的呢?
再延伸到現在的情況
殖利率再次走高,是否會因為同樣的原因
而對現在的經濟也產生「限制性」,導致經濟成長受阻
而影響股市的表現呢?
抑或是我對老鮑當時的說法理解有誤,也歡迎指正
文末再重述一次,我想問的是「美債殖利率如何影響經濟」而不只是市場
殖利率上升、美債下跌的關聯我已經明白,這不是我要問的
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