Re: [問題] 交易模式要怎麼加強?
不確定趨勢為何要下單?
沒有人可以預測盤勢
當確定這點後
就知道只是手法跟做法了
猴子拿銅板下單都有50%勝率
就算當天收長紅大漲
仍然有做空賺錢的機會
不要迷信可以預測盤勢的任何方法
只會陷入更多指標的迷思
會不會賺錢只取決你的心態
※ 引述《bleeza (what's wrong with ptt?)》之銘言:
: 如果不確定趨勢,可以透過選擇權來保護部位,減少可能的虧損,
: 以下利用昨天的盤來舉例,提供盤中與盤後的操作手法做為參考。
: 如果有更好的作法,或是本做法有盲點,也請不吝賜教。
: 盤中下單:
: 假設你昨天沒留倉空手,但是昨天開盤是開低,但又怕被騙被雙巴,但你
: 判斷(賭)今天應該會跌,假設你沒在9點前下單(想先看現貨狀況再決定),因此假設
: 你在9:21下4月大台2口,9:21的收盤價(9777)來算的話,如下圖。
: http://imgur.com/9eKhY1j
: 這時你可以在9:21去下8口4月的9900CALL來避險,以9:21的收盤價(7.7),如下圖。
: http://imgur.com/x3csfAR
: 然後你決定等到收盤的最後一分鐘再決定留倉或平倉
: 所以以13:45時的收盤價來看的話
: 期貨為9716如下圖
: http://imgur.com/dYr99tj
: 9900call為2.3如下圖
: http://imgur.com/HuI3Yul
: 所以獲利(不含手續費)整理如下:
: 2*(9777-9716)*200-8*(7.7-2.3)*50=24400-2160=22240
: =====================================================
: 13:30盤末下單:
: 若你下單是習慣盤末才下並留倉的話
: 假設以13:40的時間點來看,並判斷(賭)下週一是漲的話
: 在13:40下2口4月大台的收盤價位為9718,如下圖
: http://imgur.com/leh5Q7j
: 接著再去下8口4月的9600put來避險,以13:40的收盤價位為14.5,如下圖
: http://imgur.com/duI59BF
: 這時你的成本(不含手續費)為14.8*8=5800
: ====================================================
: 如果你判斷正確的話,你的put避險雖然會虧損,但至少還有湯
: 反之,若你判斷錯誤,依然像4/14一樣恐慌性賣壓再跌100點
: 我們可以看一下4/13大盤收在9848時,當天4月選擇權9700put的收盤價為8.8,
: 然後4/14時9700put的收盤價為38.5,漲了337.5%
: 算法是(38.5-8.8)/8.8=337.5
: 所以我們將這漲幅套用在你的避險成本時,14.8*337.5%=49.95
: (表示賺了49.95),49.95*50*8=19980
: 而你期貨的虧損為2*(9718-9618)*200=40000
: 所以不含手續費的虧損為40000-19980=20020
: 因此可以發現有一半的部位被保護住了。
: 我們可以從4/14法人留倉資訊發現,期貨部位以多單為多,但是選擇權卻
: 買了許多put,因此就算週一再跌,對法人而言,虧損應該都在控制內。
: 以上提供參考,若有更好的操作模式,歡迎提供指教。
--
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