[外絮] ESPN分析-Jokic不佳的防守能力
連結:https://es.pn/3lDF0mN
作者:Kirk Goldsberry
一些不重要的內容省略,僅擷取部分內文
Lack of defense in the paint
Jokic is not a very valuable defensive player in large part because he struggles
as a rim protector. The Spurs beat the Nuggets that night because they exploite
d the softest spot in Denver's defense on repeat: Jokic's rim protection.
These two stats tell you everything you need to know about how well Jokic has pr
otected the hoop for the Nuggets in 2022-23.
Per NBA Advanced Stats, 33 players have defended 300 shots at the rim this seaso
n. Jokic has allowed the highest field goal percentage (69.0%) on those attempts
among this group.
Opponents have shot 54.2% on layups and dunks when Jokic is the contesting defen
der AND he heavily contests the shot, per Second Spectrum tracking. That ranks 6
4th among 65 players to heavily contest 250 layups and dunks this season. The on
ly player worse? His teammate and backup, Thomas Bryant.
缺乏油漆區防守能力
阿肥不是一個很棒的防守球員主因在於他不是一個好的護匡者。3/10對決馬刺的比賽中,馬
刺擊敗金塊便是依靠不斷的瞄準金塊防守上的軟肋:阿肥的護框能力
以下有兩項數據會告訴你22-23年阿肥的護框能力:
NBA進階數據-這賽季在籃下防守超過300次投籃的球員有33位,在這之中,阿肥的對手擁有
最高的投籃命中率(69%)
根據Second Spectrum的數據,在阿肥防守之下,對手的上籃和灌籃擁有54.2%的命中率,這
在防守超過250次的65位球員之中,排名第64名,那墊底的是誰呢?他的隊友Thomas Bryant
Big men win a disproportionate share of Defensive Player of the Year awards beca
use they have the most important assignment in the sport: defending the bucket.
Like almost every team in the NBA, Denver relies on its starting center to defen
d shots, force misses and grab rebounds. Since March 8, Denver is 4-5 and its de
fense ranks 20th in the NBA in large part because it ranks 26th in the league in
both points in the paint allowed and second-chance points allowed. As the playo
ffs approach, these red flags deep in the heart of Denver's defense provide fuel
for Denver's biggest skeptics.
長人如何在DPOY競爭中獲得青睞,是因為他們在這項運動中有一項最重要的工作-保護籃框
和聯盟的所有球隊一樣,金塊仰賴他們的長人護框和搶籃板。自3/8以來,金塊取得4勝5敗
的戰績,而他們的防守排名第20,很大程度是因為他們在對手禁區得分和二次進攻得分上皆
排名聯盟第26名。隨著季後賽的接近,這些金塊防守最重要的核心問題可能成為大家對他們
最大的質疑。
Jokic is one of five players who have contested more than 1,000 total shots this
season, and only Milwaukee's Brook Lopez (847) and Sacramento's Domantas Saboni
s (786) have defended more shots in the paint than Jokic has (686).
Despite the volume, Jokic's inability to create missed shots in the paint is a b
ig reason Denver's overall defensive numbers are below average this season.
The Nuggets are allowing opponents to convert 69.6% of their contested shots in
the restricted area this season -- the worst such mark in the NBA. Jokic has con
tested more than twice as many such shots as any other member of his team in tha
t area, and opponents are making 67.3% of those attempts. He's not setting a gre
at tone.
聯盟有5個球員防守超過1000次的出手,阿肥是其中一個,而只有公鹿的大羅(847)和國王的
小沙(786)防守油漆區的出手多於阿肥(686)。
但儘管防守的量很大,但阿肥缺乏油漆區內護框的能力是金塊這賽季防守數據較差的一大因
素。
本賽季金塊的對手在合法碰撞區的命中率為69.6%,是聯盟中最差的,而阿肥防守這些出手
的次數是任何隊友的兩倍以上,對手能繳出67.3%的命中率,這不是一個好現象。
Defending drives
Jokic's limitations on defense stem in part from physical limitations. By modern
NBA standards, the man ESPN's Randy Scott nicknamed "The Dad Bod God," is a rel
atively slow player. He's listed at 6-foot-11, 284 pounds, but his mobility has
always been a question. On offense, he has overcome it, but in the pace-and-spac
e era that lack of mobility is a defensive liability. Almost all of the league's
most effective big men are lighter, quicker and bouncier than he is -- somethin
g that shows up when he attempts to guard attacking players who simply blow past
him.
Again, the numbers are not kind:
226 players have defended ball handlers on at least 200 drives this season (that
's almost half of the league), but among this massive group Jokic ranks 222nd in
efficiency, allowing 1.16 points per chance.
For context, one of Jokic's main competitors in the MVP race dominates this cate
gory. Giannis Antetokounmpo ranks first in this group, allowing 0.79 points per
chance.
Along with Jokic, the other prime candidates for this year's MVP race are both p
rominent members of teams with top defenses. Antetokounmpo, who won DPOY in 2020
-21, is a huge part of Milwaukee's attack. Joel Embiid is arguably the best defe
nder on the Philadelphia 76ers, who currently own the NBA's sixth-ranked defense
.
Denver ranks 16th in defense, and that is a red flag as it prepares for the play
offs, whether or not it's the conference's No. 1 seed. No team in the 21st centu
ry has ranked that low in defensive efficiency and won the title. The Nuggets' d
efensive woes have contributed to reasons they have lost in each of their past t
hree postseason appearances.
防守切入的能力
阿肥在防守上的限制主要在於體能限制。ESPN的Randy Scott說,他是一名相對較慢的球員
,擁有6-11身高,284磅,但阿肥的移動能力一直是個問題,進攻上他克服了,但在現代NBA
的節奏上,這樣的防守是一種負擔,幾乎所有的長人都比阿肥更輕、更快、更有彈跳力,有
時候當阿肥要防守這些對他切入的人時,數據顯示了一些東西
再次的,這數據不太友善
防守至少200次持球者切入的球員有266位(幾乎是聯盟一半的人),但在這個大群體之下,阿
肥排名在222名,對手每次切入能得到1.16分(PPP)
為了做比較,其中一位和Jokic競爭MVP的人-字母哥,排名第一,對手每次切入僅得0.79分
和阿肥比較起來,其他MVP競爭者的球隊都有優秀的防守,而這些候選人則是隊中防守的佼
佼者。字母哥,20-21的DPOY,公鹿防守很巨大的一環。鉛筆,可以說是76人隊上最優秀的
防守者,而76人也擁有聯盟第6的防守效率。
今年金塊的防守排名第16,這是他們準備季後賽需要注意的部分,不論他們是不是分區第一
種子。21世紀以來沒有任何防守效率和他們一樣低的球隊贏得過總冠軍,而金塊的防守是過
去三年他們季後賽止步的主因。
In the bubble, Denver ranked 12th in defensive rating among the 16 playoff teams
. In 2020-21, again the Nuggets ranked 12th of 16, and last season, they ranked
dead last following their first-round loss against the Golden State Warriors.
In that three-year time frame, no postseason player has allowed more field goals
(192) as a paint defender than Jokic.
在泡泡賽中,金塊在16隻隊伍中防守排名第12。20-21賽季的季後賽中,他們仍然排在第12
名,上個賽季在第一輪輸給勇士後,他們排在最後一名。(注意此防守效率為季後賽數據)
在過去三年的季後賽中,沒有球員讓對手投進比阿肥更多的禁區出手(192次)
https://i.imgur.com/JKO0C4t.jpg
對手在阿肥投籃下的命中分佈圖
--
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