[討論] 中東衝突情事劇本推演
前提公設:
1.避免麻煩只討論嚴重.中等.輕微情況(18套劇本沒空)
2.攻勢現實主義(黑暗森林法則)-先開槍先贏
3.不對等武器回擊(不含核戰)
4.Nash的非合作均衡(囚徒的困境)-要關一起關
5.聯合國完全無屁用
衝突推導:
1.嚴重---種族大屠殺(20%)
世界大戰WWIII(依序捲入)
同盟國:
以色列.美國.英國.EU.烏克蘭.南韓.台灣.日本.加拿大.澳洲.....
軸心國:
哈瑪斯.敘利亞.阿富汗.伊朗.伊拉克.約旦.埃及.俄國.土耳其.中國.北韓.....
2.中等---加薩被推平(30%)
中東地區決戰
以色列.美國.英國V.S.哈瑪斯.阿富汗.伊朗.敘利亞.伊拉克.約旦.埃及.土耳其
3.輕微----加薩被占領(50%)
以色列V.S.哈瑪斯
小結:祈禱世界和平.疫情.戰爭.飢餓三死神永遠不要來
參考資料:
霸權興衰史(Paul kennedy).文明衝突論(Samuel Phillps Huntington).
晶片戰爭(Chris Miller).明居正教授期刊論文.大國的政治悲劇(John Mearsheimer).
台灣的勝算(李喜明)
--
『軍人以逃亡為恥的,只有在捨棄老百姓的情況下。為期日後再戰而逃,一點也不可恥。
掩飾敗北,懶於分析敗因,則更為可恥。』
---- 出自外傳第一冊第246頁。
--
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