Re: 用RE24看Trout vs Cabrera
剛剛看了一下
RE24 (runs above average by the 24 base/out states): RE24 is the difference
in run expectancy (RE) between the start of the play and the end of the play.
That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher. Over
the course of the season, each players’ RE24 for individual plays is added
up to get his season total RE24.
RE24指的是一個打席前後球隊得分期望值的變化
Calculation Example: In game 4 of the 2007 World Series, the RE for the Red
Sox to start the inning was .52. When Jacoby Ellsbury doubled off Aaron Cook
in the very first at-bat in the game, the Red Sox were then expected to score
1.15 runs for the rest of the inning. The difference or RE24 was .63 runs.
Ellsbury was credited +.63 runs and Aaron Cook credited with -.63 runs.
舉例: 一開賽得分期望值為0.52, Ellsbury 打一支二壘安打, 之後球隊的得分期望值
為1.15, 於是Ellsbury 可得到 1.15-0.52= 0.63 分
所以我有點懷疑 Dave Cameron 舉的例子到底正不正確
0.33的得分期望值打了一隻3 分全壘打, 之後球隊的得分期望值應該不是3, 因為
還有得分的機會, 這是小細節可以討論
重點是, 只要是數據都有盲點
1. Cabrera的 IBB有 17次, 而他的 batting average with RISP 有 0.356, 代表
原本可以有較高的分數, 因為敬遠只賺到一點
2. 作者有提到 Cabrera 多了23次 1+ runs, 因為長打較多, 而trout 靠避免雙殺
等對球隊有害的play追上甚至超前. 但我也可以解讀如果有較多次big plays,
一次灌好幾分, 是不是較可能直接讓球隊獲勝? 如果只是常常讓一壘有人變一二壘
有人,對球隊的獲勝較無貢獻? 因為這是期望值差而不是真正的得分
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