用RE24看Trout vs Cabrera

看板MLB作者時間11年前 (2012/10/05 08:49), 編輯推噓51(61推 10噓 92→)
留言163則, 59人參與, 最新討論串1/5 (看更多)
噓
10/05 02:35,
比打擊卡布贏不了 哈哈
10/05 02:35
http://tinyurl.com/98qkdru RE24 is essentially the difference between the run expectancy when a hitter comes to the plate and when his at-bat ends. For example, September 16th, Cabrera came to the plate against Joe Smith with runners at first and second and two outs, a situation where the Tigers would be expected to score 0.33 runs on average. Cabrera hit a three run home run, so they actually scored three runs, and RE24 gives Cabrera credit for +2.67 runs, the gap between what they were expected to score and what they actually scored. RE24是拿來衡量"實際"得分的工具 舉例來說 Cabrera有次在二出局一二壘有人的局面 上場打擊 二出局一二壘有人的期望得分是0.33分 而Cabrera打了三分全壘打 那Cabrera這次打擊的"實際"貢獻就是3-0.33=2.67分 Here’s the AL leaderboard for this season. If you don’t want to click the link, I’ll just reproduce the top five here. 1. Mike Trout: +56.52 runs 2. Edwin Encarnacion: +54.44 runs 3. Prince Fielder: +48.12 runs 4. Joe Mauer: +46.51 runs 5. Miguel Cabrera: +45.18 runs Trout在RE24排名第一 Cabrera排第五 So, why is Trout ahead of Cabrera? And, for that matter, why is Cabrera behind even his own teammate, Prince Fielder, as well as two others who are not in the MVP discussion? 為什麼Cabrera"實際"製造的分數會小於Trout 甚至低於隊友Fielder呢? It comes back to double plays. I noted a few weeks ago that Cabrera had hit into an AL leading 28 double plays. Turns out, a bunch of those were big-time rally killers. 12 of the 28 double plays Cabrera hit into lowered the run expectancy by at least one run; Trout only had two plate appearances all season where the run expectancy went down that much in a single play. Because RE24 is available for every play, and easily accessible from the play logs, it ’s easy to put each player’s individual performances into groups, so we can see the distribution of their offensive events. 雙殺打 Cabrera的28雙殺中 有12次降低期望得分超過1分 Trout只有兩次打席有降這麼多 Player +1 and up 0 to +1 0 to -1 -1 and down Trout 54 269 388 2 Cabrera 77 219 406 12 Cabrera had 23 more highly visible significant offensive plays that generated +1 runs or more than expected based on the situation he was placed in. Those plays are extremely valuable, and Cabrera was credited with 97 runs in those 77 plays. Meanwhile, Trout only created 66 runs in his 54 big plays, so we’ re looking at a 31 run advantage for Cabrera in high visibility plays. This is what’s driving Cabrera’s narrative – everyone remembers these plays, and saw Cabrera come through in big situations more often than they saw Trout do the same. Cabrera多了23次大舉灌分的表現 多灌進了31分 這些表現讓大家印象深刻 However, Trout makes up the gap — and then some — in the other 600+ plays that matter as well. While he had 23 fewer big positive plays, he had 50 additional smaller positive plays, all of which contributed to the Angels offensive performance. He also had 28 fewer negative value plays, including 10 fewer that were extremely negative, thanks primarily to his ability to stay out of the double play. 但Trout在小細節上多了50次小加分的表現 另外還少了28次扣分 包括少了10次的終結攻勢 主要是避免雙殺的能力 You can go through each player’s play logs and see exactly where they earned and lost credit. There’s no replacement level here. We’re not dealing with defensive metrics that require some subjective inputs and can’t be easily replicated. This is just pure offense, and the total value of all the plays that both Trout and Cabrera were involved in. 看一下實際紀錄就知道得分和失分的表現 這裡不考慮什麼替代水準 也不看防守 就只看"實際"打下的分數 And Trout still comes out on top. Ignore defense. Ignore things like going first to third on a single, or taking the extra base on a fly ball. Ignore WAR. Trout still wins. This is how amazing his season actually was. Even if you strip away the things that make Mike Trout special, he was still the best offensive performer in the American League this year, even while starting the season in the minors. This isn’t just the best performance of 2012 – it’s one of the best individual performances in the history of baseball. 而Trout還是贏過Cabrera 不看防守 不看跑壘 不看WAR Trout還是贏 他還是美聯實際攻擊力的第一名 這不只是2012最佳表現 - 這是史上最佳表現之一 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.25.133 ※ 編輯: abc12812 來自: 140.112.25.133 (10/05 08:50)
推
10/05 08:52, , 1F
這次MVP鬧真大 什麼分析都出來了
10/05 08:52, 1F
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10/05 08:54, , 2F
強調"實際"打下來的分數也太怪了~這直接看打點不就好
10/05 08:54, 2F
噓
10/05 08:57, , 3F
不考慮開個Trout專版嗎
10/05 08:57, 3F
噓
10/05 08:59, , 4F
END
10/05 08:59, 4F
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10/05 09:00, , 5F
其實這分析是蠻有道理的
10/05 09:00, 5F
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10/05 09:01, , 6F
說台灣老是在殺豬公不是說假的 從鄉民推文就知
10/05 09:01, 6F
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10/05 09:06, , 7F
這分析是想扣除打點會因為隊友的強度而容易增加
10/05 09:06, 7F
推
10/05 09:07, , 8F
Push,這系列的文章都很不錯,學到不少
10/05 09:07, 8F
推
10/05 09:07, , 9F
為啥二出局一二壘有人的得分期望值是0.33 怎算的？？
10/05 09:07, 9F
推
10/05 09:10, , 10F
而且這個期望值是個人的 還是聯盟平均？？ 這數據有問題
10/05 09:10, 10F
推
10/05 09:12, , 11F
噓的人貼點有料的阿
10/05 09:12, 11F
推
10/05 09:14, , 12F
一堆人還是會無視狂噓 你省省吧
10/05 09:14, 12F
推
10/05 09:15, , 13F
問題是Cabrera本身也會因為隊友而獲得更多雙殺的機會
10/05 09:15, 13F
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10/05 09:16, , 14F
而導致扣分，這個關係在這數據沒法去除的吧
10/05 09:16, 14F
推
10/05 09:17, , 15F
RE24定義http://ppt.cc/4uuN 那每年都會不一樣
10/05 09:17, 15F
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10/05 09:18, , 16F
因為隊友獲得更多GIDP??? 那也代表他有更多的RBI機會阿
10/05 09:18, 16F
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10/05 09:19, , 17F
你如果要看RBI為什麼就不考慮GIDP呢? 係出同門阿
10/05 09:19, 17F
推
10/05 09:22, , 18F
噓的人道理都講不出來
10/05 09:22, 18F
推
10/05 09:22, , 19F
所以若你用RE24來說在打擊上Trout比Cabrera來的強
10/05 09:22, 19F
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10/05 09:24, , 20F
對不起~上一句我打錯了~我想要問的是RE24是有考慮
10/05 09:24, 20F
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10/05 09:25, , 21F
隊友的得分能力吧?
10/05 09:25, 21F
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10/05 09:25, , 22F
今年Posey和Headley都贏過Trout
10/05 09:25, 22F
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10/05 09:25, , 23F
TROUT有機會成為AROD接班人 成為總板新戰神嗎?
10/05 09:25, 23F
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10/05 09:26, , 24F
還是考慮全大聯盟平均得分能力?
10/05 09:26, 24F
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10/05 09:26, , 25F
HARPER真的該加點油了...
10/05 09:26, 25F
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10/05 09:27, , 26F
mauer第四耶!!
10/05 09:27, 26F
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10/05 09:28, , 27F
才新人 慢慢來沒差吧 前幾篇明明才po了他的數據
10/05 09:28, 27F
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10/05 09:28, , 28F
我不敢說他第二年有辦法達到今年Trout的成就
10/05 09:28, 28F
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10/05 09:28, , 29F
因為Trout太鬼扯了 但Harper新人年的表現 已經排名史上
10/05 09:28, 29F
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10/05 09:29, , 30F
前幾了 更不用提還比Trout來得好的多 慢慢看下去吧
10/05 09:29, 30F
推
10/05 09:30, , 31F
你要比較卡布跟鱒魚的打擊誰比較強 為什麼要看隊友得分
10/05 09:30, 31F
推
10/05 09:31, , 32F
cool 有這種數據!
10/05 09:31, 32F
推
10/05 09:35, , 33F
說Harper要加油的人真是搞不清狀況
10/05 09:35, 33F
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10/05 09:35, , 34F
只能說數據頭已經進入自己的世界了，打開官網看看吧
10/05 09:35, 34F
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10/05 09:36, , 35F
光是頭條就兩篇慶祝Miggy得三冠王的新聞
10/05 09:36, 35F
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10/05 09:36, , 36F
另外光是在板上我就看過Verlander和Hamilton說Miggy應得MVP
10/05 09:36, 36F
推
10/05 09:37, , 37F
這兩人誰得MVP其實都很棒了 但Trout才21歲
10/05 09:37, 37F
還有 86 則推文
推
10/05 11:46, , 124F
Trout不贏 說不過去
10/05 11:46, 124F
推
10/05 11:48, , 125F
量化嗎....dWAR是負的LF vs. dWAR +2的CF
10/05 11:48, 125F
推
10/05 11:49, , 126F
列那麼多進階數據都證明Trout進攻數據不輸米糕 某些人還是
10/05 11:49, 126F
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10/05 11:50, , 127F
只會提三冠王 提進階數據心就是冷冰冰的 提三冠王心就是熱
10/05 11:50, 127F
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10/05 11:51, , 128F
的XDDDD
10/05 11:51, 128F
推
10/05 12:03, , 129F
打擊率、打點和全壘打都不是數據!!!!
10/05 12:03, 129F
推
10/05 12:04, , 130F
幹嘛這樣說，Trout也是三冠王
10/05 12:04, 130F
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10/05 12:05, , 131F
天才小釣手又來囉 大豐收
10/05 12:05, 131F
推
10/05 12:06, , 132F
其實我昨天才去看了RE24 今天就剛好有文章出來 XD
10/05 12:06, 132F
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10/05 12:08, , 133F
不過RE24應該有計算盜壘事件 我想把它抽掉不過辦不到XD
10/05 12:08, 133F
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10/05 12:26, , 134F
"胖卡布對老虎真的很重要,沒他的話,我看老虎的勝場會少
10/05 12:26, 134F
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10/05 12:28, , 135F
個20場吧!他打出勝利打點的比賽都一堆了,Trout的WAR在10
10/05 12:28, 135F
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10/05 12:29, , 136F
左右又怎樣,胖卡布對老虎的貢獻起碼有20勝啦!"
10/05 12:29, 136F
推
10/05 12:52, , 137F
投票的人是活的 看到老虎一路衝進季後賽有加分
10/05 12:52, 137F
推
10/05 13:07, , 138F
推一個 這篇滿有道理的啊 只是現在就是不知道投票者對
10/05 13:07, 138F
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10/05 13:08, , 139F
進階數據能接受度到什麼程度
10/05 13:08, 139F
推
10/05 13:12, , 140F
Trout貢獻度絕對比米糕高 但MVP要看投票者夠不夠理性了
10/05 13:12, 140F
推
10/05 13:44, , 141F
這個進階數據我還滿喜歡的，支持Trout拿MVP
10/05 13:44, 141F
推
10/05 13:58, , 142F
反正就是要用進階數據來談就是了，魔球正夯
10/05 13:58, 142F
推
10/05 14:02, , 143F
這個觀點很不錯…我覺得比WAR直觀…
10/05 14:02, 143F
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10/05 14:02, , 144F
想噓的人先去了解一下什麼叫「得分期望值矩陣」
10/05 14:02, 144F
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10/05 14:03, , 145F
我一直覺得這個分析很有用…也可以用來討論戰術的合適性
10/05 14:03, 145F
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10/05 14:03, , 146F
倒是沒想過它也可以用在這種地方
10/05 14:03, 146F
噓
10/05 14:08, , 147F
講得很好啊~但是我認為忽略棒次問題~
10/05 14:08, 147F
推
10/05 14:18, , 148F
跟棒次有什麼關係？壘上有人的話能打回來他就加分啊
10/05 14:18, 148F
噓
10/05 14:23, , 149F
10/05 14:23, 149F
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10/05 14:31, , 150F
得分期望值矩陣只跟你上場時面對的情況有關。
10/05 14:31, 150F
推
10/05 15:17, , 151F
這個有趣，有推
10/05 15:17, 151F
推
10/05 15:51, , 152F
我想問一下,如果場上是二壘有人,而打者一上場就被敬遠
10/05 15:51, 152F
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10/05 15:52, , 153F
那分數怎麼算
10/05 15:52, 153F
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10/05 16:09, , 154F
二壘有人有二壘有人的期望值
10/05 16:09, 154F
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10/05 16:09, , 155F
一二壘有人有一二壘有人的期望值
10/05 16:09, 155F
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10/05 16:11, , 156F
我的意思是如果在壘上有人時被保送 RE24會是負的嗎?
10/05 16:11, 156F
推
10/05 16:45, , 157F
二壘有人->一二壘有人 期望值會上升
10/05 16:45, 157F
推
10/05 17:02, , 158F
推
10/05 17:02, 158F
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10/05 20:34, , 159F
如果有個同隊的佔第3名，會不會影響這個數值呢?
10/05 20:34, 159F
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10/06 01:11, , 160F
棒球迷的心是熱的 不愧是豬公看了都會發抖的專家
10/06 01:11, 160F
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10/06 04:43, , 161F
我的想法是教練放你第四棒就是要長打,第一棒就是要上壘
10/06 04:43, 161F
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10/06 04:44, , 162F
trout絕對第一棒MVP,卡布是第四棒MVP~誰得我覺得都不意外
10/06 04:44, 162F
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10/06 04:45, , 163F
而第四棒面對壘上有人打成雙殺比率本來就會比較高
10/06 04:45, 163F
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文章代碼(AID): #1GRYw6oo (MLB)
‣ 更多 abc12812 的文章
文章代碼(AID): #1GRYw6oo (MLB)