[轉錄][外絮] 關於Kobe關鍵時刻表現的迷思
※ [本文轉錄自 NBA 看板 #1DGohkLk ]
作者: kart (=\) 看板: NBA
標題: [外絮] 關於Kobe關鍵時刻表現的迷思
時間: Sat Jan 29 04:45:32 2011
類似的文章不少，作者自己也提了，不過這篇文章比較特別的是...
他列出了比較負面的例子... @@
The truth about Kobe Bryant in crunch time
By Henry Abbott/ESPN
關於Kobe在關鍵時刻的真相。
ESPN亨利阿伯 撰寫
At the end of Game 2 of the 2009 Finals, the Magic knew who to
guard, and got the block.
在2009冠軍賽第二場關鍵時刻，魔術知道要防守誰
也成功的蓋了「他」火鍋。
Ask pundits. Ask general managers. Ask players. Ask almost
anybody.
Who would like to have take the last shot with the game on the
line?
問任何跟NBA有關的人最後一擊要給誰？
Kobe Bryant wins by a country mile. Every time. (In a general
manager poll this season, he earned 79% of the vote, his ninth
consecutive blowout.)
Kobe幾乎每次都在類似投票中大幅度領先（本季對個球隊經理的調查，
他以高達79%的比例連續九年獲得壓倒性勝利。）
There is not really any other serious candidate.
幾乎沒有人能在這項投票中望其項背。
Ask me, though, (as Ryen Russillo did last week and Mike Trudell
the other day) and I'll tell you I don't know who's the best, but
with all due respect to Bryant's amazing abilities scoring the
ball, there's zero chance he's the king of crunch time.
如果你要問我（或是之前有在注意關鍵時刻的專業球評），那
我會跟你說我不知道誰是最好的，我也非常尊敬Kobe驚人的得分能力，
但是他百分之百不是（0%）關鍵時刻的王者。
The sin of predictability
觀察一：可預測性
Bryant makes crunch time defense easy for opponents by shooting
just about every time he touches the ball (over a five-year
period, he mustered 56 clutch shots, to go with one assist).
Kobe的可預測性在於他幾乎一碰到球就一定要射，
讓關鍵時刻對手對他的防守相對簡單許多。
（過去五年中關鍵時刻中他總共投了56球，只有一個助攻）
Fans of his raw machismo howl that such criticism misses the
point, but the point is that when Bryant gets the ball in crunch
time, it's a virtual certainty that he'll shoot it, and it's
better than two-to-one odds that he'll miss.
很多kobe迷喜歡嚎叫說批評者搞不清楚狀況。
但是重點是kobe在關鍵時刻幾乎肯定一拿到球他就一定要出手，
而且有遠大於50%的機會他會投失。
In 1997, he famously airballed two shots that could have beat the
Jazz -- instead the Jazz won the series. In 1999, he whiffed on a
3-pointer at the buzzer that would have tied Game 2 against the
Spurs. In Game 4 against the Kings in 2002, he missed a 2-pointer
that would have tied the game (before the ball was tipped out to
Robert Horry for the winning 3). In Game 7 of that same series,
Bryant missed a tip that would have won the game in regulation. In
Game 3 against the Timberwolves in 2003, he missed two key shots
in the last seconds of overtime, and the Lakers lost.
1997年，他季後賽對爵士有名的投了兩顆籃外空心，而這兩顆如果進了
都有可能獲勝。結果是爵士把湖人橫掃。
1999年，他在季後賽第二場對馬刺投失一棵可能追平的三分。
2002年第四戰對上國王，他投失了一個可追平的兩分球（雖然結果
球彈到威爾史密斯手上投進致勝三分）
在第七戰時Kobe一個補籃不進，否則可以不用打延長賽。
2003年第三戰對上灰狼，他最後連續投失了兩球導致輸球。
I'll spare you the entire list, but it's long. In the final 24
seconds of playoff games, Bryant has racked up almost as many
airballs as makes, making just below 30 percent of game-tying or
go-ahead shots. He hasn't hit such a shot in a playoff game, in
fact, since 2008, including key misses in the closing moments
against the Jazz and Magic in 2009, and the Thunder and Suns last
spring. He made one of his four shots in the fourth quarter of
Game 7 of last year's Finals.
舉凡種種，不甚枚舉，我也不想統統列出來給你們看，
只能說名單很長很可怕。
但是在季後賽裡，最後24秒進攻中的Kobe投進的球跟他投出的籃外空心
差不多一樣多，總計命中率不到30%。
事實上，自從2008年以後他在季後賽就沒有在關鍵時刻投中過了，包括
2009年對上爵士和魔術，和2010年對上雷霆和太陽。
而他在去年的總冠軍賽第七場第四節只勉強投進一球。
No matter how you define crunch time -- from the last five minutes
of the fourth quarter or overtime to the last 24 seconds -- and
no matter how you define production -- field goal percentage,
offensive efficiency, David Berri's Wins Produced, the results
tell the same story: Bryant is about as likely to hit the big shot
as any player.
不管你怎樣定義關鍵時刻--常規賽最後五分鐘和延長賽，或是只算最後
24秒-- 也不管你要怎麼計算一個球員的貢獻--命中率，攻擊效率，
帶來的勝場精算等等，結果通常只有一個：Kobe關鍵時刻的表現很一般，
跟一般球員沒啥兩樣。
ESPN Stats and Information's Alok Pattani dug through 15 years of
NBA data (see table below) -- Bryant's entire career, regular
season and playoffs -- and found that Bryant has attempted 115
shots in the final 24 seconds of a game in which the Lakers were
tied or trailed by two or fewer points. He connected on 36, and
missed 79 times.
根據我們ESPN的統計，過去15年來（請看下表），也就是Kobe的全部生涯
在內，包括所有季賽和季後賽，Kobe在最後24秒球隊落後或平手的局面
他總共投了115顆，進了36顆，投失了79顆。
One shot for all the cookies. And the NBA is nearly unanimous that
this is the guy to take it, even though he has more than twice as
many misses as makes?
怕了吧，所有NBA一致舉手通過要給他投最後一擊的人，即使他有超過
兩倍的機率投失多於投進，竟然表現如斯
His crunch time production is slightly higher in the first half of
this season, but still certainly not the best in the league. And
analyzing any large number of games, one year, five years or
fifteen years, and defining crunch time a number of different
ways, shows the same pattern. (There are a many ways this has been
sliced.)
他今年這方面的表現比他的平均值好一點點，但是顯然跟最好差很多。
重點是不管你怎麼分析--只算某年，只算某五年，或算上過去15年，
結果還是一樣的。
Bryant shoots more than most, passes less, and racks up misses at
an all-time rate. There is no measure, other than YouTube
highlights and folklore, by which he's the best scorer in crunch
time.
Kobe關鍵時刻出手比是最高的，傳球非常稀有，而且投失球數正在往
史上新高邁進。所有統計都顯示，除了Youtube和高光以外，他絕對
不是關鍵時刻最好的得分手。
以下是從96-97年開始統計，在24秒內，球隊落後0-2分時，球員出手表現
（包括季賽和季後賽，出手數超過30次以上）
Player Makes Attempts FG%
Carmelo Anthony 21 44 47.7
Chris Paul 14 31 45.2
Shawn Marion 12 30 40
Brandon Roy 12 30 40
Hedo Turkoglu 12 30 40
Rashard Lewis 18 46 39.1
Glenn Robinson 14 36 38.9
Deron Williams 14 36 38.9
Mike Bibby 15 39 38.5
Dirk Nowitzki 25 65 38.5
Jalen Rose 12 32 37.5
Tim Duncan 23 62 37.1
Eddie Jones 13 36 36.1
Karl Malone 11 31 35.5
Ben Gordon 17 49 34.7
Chris Webber 18 52 34.6
Raymond Felton 12 36 33.3
LeBron James 23 69 33.3
Ray Allen 23 70 32.9
Gilbert Arenas 13 40 32.5
Vince Carter 31 96 32.3
Steve Francis 14 44 31.8
Damon Stoudamire12 38 31.6
Nick Van Exel 16 51 31.4
Kobe Bryant 36 115 31.3
Jason Terry 14 45 31.1
Allen Iverson 21 68 30.9
Kevin Garnett 22 72 30.6
Ron Artest 9 30 30
Allan Houston 12 41 29.3
Entire league 2038 6861 29.7
The un-clutch Lakers
觀察二：關鍵時刻讓湖人無法發揮
One of the key arguments in his favor is that he draws
double-teams, which allows other Lakers to score. But that doesn't
seem to happen much. Over Bryant's 15-year career, the Lakers
have had the NBA's best offense, and second-best won-loss record.
No other team can match their mighty 109 points per 100
possessions over the entire period.
kobe迷常常爭論說Kobe屌的就是他關鍵時刻能吸引包夾，這樣其他人
不是就有機會了嘛。但是不幸的是，這個現象並沒有發生太多。
在Kobe 15年的生涯之中，湖人隊是這15年以來全NBA攻擊最好的球隊，
而且擁有第二高的輸贏比。沒有任何一隊可以接近他們的進攻效率
（每100次進攻能得109分）
You'd expect Los Angeles to also have one of the league's best
offenses in crunch time, right? Especially with the ball in the
hands of the player most suited to those moments.
在這麼顯眼的數字下你會期待照理來說湖人隊在關鍵時刻
表現應該也不俗，對嘛？尤其是還有公認關鍵時刻最強的
人在隊上不是嘛？
That's not what happens, though. In the final 24 seconds of close
games the Laker offense regresses horribly, managing just 82
points per 100 possessions. And it's not a simple case of every
team having a hard time scoring in crunch time. Over Bryant's
career, 11 teams have had better crunch time offenses, led by the
Hornets with a shocking 107 points per 100 possessions in crunch
time, a huge credit to Chris Paul.
但是這並沒有如人們想像般發生。
事實上，如果只看關鍵時刻的24秒，湖人隊的進攻效率下降到
爛透了的每100次進攻才有82分的效率。而且這並不是因為關鍵
時刻通常任何NBA球隊都表現不好，在kobe的生涯中（15年來），
有11隊比湖人隊在關鍵時刻都有效率，最有效率的是黃蜂隊，
關鍵時刻每100次進攻可以得107分，這要感謝CP3的強力加持。
The Lakers are not among the league leaders in crunch time offense
-- instead they're just about average, scoring 82.35 points per
100 possessions in a league that averages 80.03. They are,
however, among the league leaders in how much worse their offense
declines in crunch time.
上面說了湖人隊並不是關鍵時刻進攻最好的球隊，只在平均值
（每100次進攻得80分）。
不過他們在平常進攻效率和關鍵時刻進攻效率的差值倒是全聯盟最大的。
（109分下降到82分！）
When Bryant is on the floor in crunch time, Bryant's Lakers are
actually outscored by their opponents.
之前有文章提過當Kobe關鍵時刻在場上時，湖人其實得分是輸給
對手的。（+/-值是負值）
A great offensive team performing at average levels, with a star
setting records for number of shots attempted. Teammates left wide
open. Evidence, even, that Bryant's play puts his team into
nailbiters that needn't be so close.
一個強大進攻效率的球隊，到了關鍵時刻表現平平，隊中有一個
球星不斷創造投球數的紀錄。而隊友通常都是有大空檔。
這些都是Kobe讓他所處的球隊處於不利位置的證據。
That, my friends, is a ballhog.
我的讀者朋友們，這就叫做自幹王。
（文章好長，先翻一半，下半段待續....）
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