Re: [閒聊] 所以魚人聖後手要不要留2啦!
肥宅午餐後跟同學聊這手,
算了一下想說放上來跟大家一起討論
前提
1.起手2XXX(X代表不是1費也不是2費的牌)
2.只考慮費用,同費用當同一張
3.1+2 硬幣2+2 1+(1+1) 都當做好的情況
4.換牌不會回到手中
5.換完牌2XXX不會硬幣2等神抽
換三張(留2):有三種情況 1.換到1 2.換到2 3.12都沒換到
1.換到1
全部-一張1費都沒抽到 1-((20*19*18)/(26*25*24))=0.561
2.換到2 分三種 2XX 22X 222 (非12費牌18-3張)
下面那篇文說算錯應該是誤會,我這裡2沒有包含1那些有1費的情況
2XX 3*((15*14*5)/(26*25*24))=0.202
22X 3*((15*5*4)/(26*25*24))=0.058
222 1*((5*4*3)/(26*25*24))=0.004
Total=0.260
3.沒有但燙一個右手進1或2
XXX 1*((15*14*13)/(26*25*24))*11/26=0.074
好的情況共0.561+0.260+0.074=0.895 89.5%
換四張 情況很多往下看
1.1+2 分6種 12XX 112X 122X 1112 1122 1222 (2的機率要從5開始算因為少一張水文)
12XX 4!/2*((15*14*6*5)/(26*25*24*23))=0.211
112X 4!/2*((15*6*5*5)/(26*25*24*23))=0.075
122X 4!/2*((15*6*5*4)/(26*25*24*23))=0.060
1112 4!/3!*((6*5*4*5)/(26*25*24*23))=0.007
1122 4!/3!*((6*5*5*4)/(26*25*24*23))=0.007
1222 4!/3!*((6*5*4*3)/(26*25*24*23))=0.004
Total=0.364
2.2+2 分3種 22XX 222X 2222
22XX 4!/(2*2)*((15*14*5*4)/(26*25*24*23))=0.07
222X 4*((15*5*4*3)/(26*25*24*23))=0.01
2222 1*((5*4*3*2)/(26*25*24*23))=0.000
Total=0.08
3.1+(1+1) 分兩種 1111 111X
1111 1*((6*5*4*3)/(26*25*24*23))=0.001
111X 4*((6*5*4*15)/(26*25*24*23))=0.02
Total=0.021
4-1.單張1 起手進2
1XXX 4*((6*15*14*13)/(26*25*24*23))*6/26=0.042
4-2.單張1 起手進1 第二張進2
1XXX 4*((6*15*14*13)/(26*25*24*23))*5/26*10/25=0.014
4-3.單張1 起手第一張進X 第二張進2
1XXX 4*((6*15*14*13)/(26*25*24*23))*15/26*6/25=0.025
Total=0.081
5.單張2起手進1或2
2XXX 4*((5*15*14*13)/(26*25*24*23))*11/26=0.064
6.11XX不要連續兩張進X
11XX 4!/(2*2)((15*14*6*5)/(26*25*24*23))*(1-(16/26*15/25))=0.066
7.都沒有燙一個靠右手 1+2
XXXX (15*14*13*12)/(26*25*24*23))*6/26*6/25=0.005
好的情況0.364+0.08+0.021+0.081+0.006+0.066+0.005=0.681 68.1%
懶人包:
換三張 90%會是好的
換四張 70%會是好的
不過肥宅還是憤怒雞咕咕叫
BloodTrail 我都看天梯特訓班學數學 BloodTrail
補充:
1.換牌不會回到手中是在金字塔中得到的智慧,我沒實際測過
2.好的情況就是要完全符合我的前提的 1跳3不討論是因為冷光跟隊長跟神恩能不能跳尷尬
3.水文這對戰要不要換其實很難說,除非很確定沒抓到1費會完蛋或是從頭到尾都一
定不出水文,考慮下去會不知怎麼算
4.有人說幸運幣出了是不同情況,肥宅同學下面有推了只想1+2 或1+(1+1)機率會是
0.6019(換三)跟0.5727(換四)差不多
5.牌組是看那天特訓班那副6張1費 6張2費
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