Re: [閒聊] 所以魚人聖後手要不要留2啦!
我用機率來算算看,不過很久沒碰了,有錯請見諒.
起手有1張2,換三張牌(找1)
6/26+(20/26*6/25)+(20/26*19/25*6/24)+(20/26*19/25*18/24*6/26)
=(93600+74880+59280+41040)/405600
換三張牌+T1進牌有1的機率約有66.27%
起手有1張2,換三張牌(找2)
5/26+(21/26*5/25)+(21/26*20/25*5/24)+(21/26*20/25*19/24*5/26)+
(21/26*20/25*19/24*21/26*5/25)=(1950000+1638000+1365000+997500+837900)/10140000
換三張牌+T1T2進牌有2的機率約有66.94%
起手有1張2,換四張牌(找1)
6/26+(20/26*6/25)+(20/26*19/25*6/24)+(20/26*19/25*18/24*6/23)+
(20/26*19/25*18/24*17/23*6/26)=(5238480+1067040+697680)/9328800
換四張牌+T1進牌有1的機率約有75.07%
起手有1張2,換四張牌(找1+2)
...崩潰 算不下去了 有人要算嗎
不想列算式 換四張牌+T1進牌有1+T2進牌有2的機率約有55.50%
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※ 編輯: UzInSec (111.185.34.57), 04/26/2017 10:40:16
推
04/26 10:40, , 1F
04/26 10:40, 1F
推
04/26 10:42, , 2F
04/26 10:42, 2F
→
04/26 10:43, , 3F
04/26 10:43, 3F
推
04/26 10:45, , 4F
04/26 10:45, 4F
推
04/26 10:45, , 5F
04/26 10:45, 5F
推
04/26 10:45, , 6F
04/26 10:45, 6F
推
04/26 10:46, , 7F
04/26 10:46, 7F
推
04/26 10:52, , 8F
04/26 10:52, 8F
推
04/26 10:53, , 9F
04/26 10:53, 9F
推
04/26 10:53, , 10F
04/26 10:53, 10F
→
04/26 10:54, , 11F
04/26 10:54, 11F
※ 編輯: UzInSec (111.185.34.57), 04/26/2017 11:07:03
→
04/26 10:58, , 12F
04/26 10:58, 12F
※ 編輯: UzInSec (111.185.34.57), 04/26/2017 11:09:43
推
04/26 11:13, , 13F
04/26 11:13, 13F
→
04/26 11:13, , 14F
04/26 11:13, 14F
→
04/26 11:14, , 15F
04/26 11:14, 15F
前兩個 起手有留2 所以只有算另外三張或進牌拿到1或2.
一的打法 T1丟1,T2丟2 二的打法 T1丟02,T2丟2
三只有算全換抓到1
四是全換抓到1+2 打法是T1丟1,T2丟2.
※ 編輯: UzInSec (111.185.34.57), 04/26/2017 11:20:24
推
04/26 11:20, , 16F
04/26 11:20, 16F
→
04/26 11:20, , 17F
04/26 11:20, 17F
→
04/26 11:21, , 18F
04/26 11:21, 18F
推
04/26 11:39, , 19F
04/26 11:39, 19F
推
04/26 11:46, , 20F
04/26 11:46, 20F
推
04/26 12:16, , 21F
04/26 12:16, 21F
推
04/26 12:16, , 22F
04/26 12:16, 22F
推
04/26 13:17, , 23F
04/26 13:17, 23F
推
04/26 13:36, , 24F
04/26 13:36, 24F
推
04/26 13:42, , 25F
04/26 13:42, 25F
推
04/26 13:44, , 26F
04/26 13:44, 26F
→
04/26 13:44, , 27F
04/26 13:44, 27F
→
04/26 13:44, , 28F
04/26 13:44, 28F
→
04/26 13:55, , 29F
04/26 13:55, 29F
推
04/26 14:00, , 30F
04/26 14:00, 30F
推
04/26 14:18, , 31F
04/26 14:18, 31F
→
04/26 14:18, , 32F
04/26 14:18, 32F
→
04/26 14:20, , 33F
04/26 14:20, 33F
→
04/26 14:20, , 34F
04/26 14:20, 34F
推
04/26 15:31, , 35F
04/26 15:31, 35F
→
04/26 15:32, , 36F
04/26 15:32, 36F
→
04/26 15:33, , 37F
04/26 15:33, 37F
推
04/26 15:35, , 38F
04/26 15:35, 38F
→
04/26 15:35, , 39F
04/26 15:35, 39F
四張全換抓到2的機會有算進去了 我等等在驗算一次看看
不過應該不可能71% 有1+2 牌庫裡只剩5張2
※ 編輯: UzInSec (111.185.34.57), 04/26/2017 17:11:35
推
04/26 21:44, , 40F
04/26 21:44, 40F
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